Remember what a win looks like?

Yeah, I don't either. Here's a refresher.

NC StateFour Factors
eFG%54.5Turnover Rate16.1Off Reb Rate17.1FTM/FGA32.1Miami
Four Factors
eFG%48.5
Turnover Rate17.5Off Reb Rate36.8FTM/FGA16.2











Our free throw rate is always important for us, but especially so against the Hurricanes. NC State's correlations:

 Correlations
 to OE to DE
 Pace: -0.17 +0.36

 eFG%: +0.66* +0.19
 OR%: +0.22 -0.19
 TO%: -0.34 -0.05
 FTR: +0.55* -0.09

 Opp eFG%: -0.02 +0.88*
 Opp OR%: +0.05 +0.24
 Opp TO%: +0.22 -0.31
 Opp FTR: +0.07 +0.50*

 Bold values are significant with a 95% confidence
 Bold* values are significant with a 99% confidence

Miami's:

 Correlations
 to OE to DE
 Pace: +0.25 -0.08

 eFG%: +0.77* +0.14
 OR%: +0.26 -0.12
 TO%: -0.29 -0.06
 FTR: +0.26 -0.09

 Opp eFG%: +0.14 +0.74*
 Opp OR%: -0.04 +0.35
 Opp TO%: -0.03 -0.66*
 Opp FTR: -0.10 +0.46

 Bold values are significant with a 95% confidence
 Bold* values are significant with a 99% confidence

There is a statistically significant correlation between our FTR and our offensive efficiency, and there is also a relationship between opponents' FTR and Miami's defensive efficiency.

Back when I previewed the Hurricanes, I wrote:

In order to put themselves in position to make the NCAA tournament in 2008, Miami needed to drastically improve its defense and find a way to score on the road. They maybe possibly have accomplished the former, but we won't know about the latter for a while.

As far as the defensive improvement goes, mission accomplished. The Canes stayed healthy, their 2FG% defense stayed solid, and that took care of it. They were still a below-average defensive squad this season--they still didn't defend the three--but the 107.2 points they allowed per 100 possessions is nearly a 10-point improvement on the 117.0 DEF EFF they posted in conference play a year ago.

And they did do a better job of scoring on the road, but not much:

 OFF EFF
. Home Road
2007 115.4 96.3
2008 110.9 100.8

But they were able to catch enough breaks at home to make up for their ineffectiveness on the road, so NCAA tournament-bound (probably) they are.

The Predict-O-Meter likes Miami by 8: 76-68 in a game with 66 possessions.