Previewing Winthrop

2008 Scouting Report / 2009 Scouting Report / 2009 Game Plan
2008 Stats (pdf) / 2009 Stats (pdf)
2009 Roster / 2009 Schedule

Winthrop Offense 07-08Four FactorsPercentNat'l RankeFG%49.6179Turnover Rate19.478Off Reb Rate33.4144FTM/FGA21.2288

Points were hard to come by for an Eagles offense that didn't do anything particularly well in 2008; although they made over 37% of their threes, they took them sparingly, and shot poorly from both two-point range and the free throw line. It was a stout defense they relied on to fuel their offense and carry them to a conference championship.

With a handful of seniors gone, including their top three minutes-getters, Winthrop is still trying to figure out who fits where, and they are off to a dreadful start. Both the offense and the defense have seen significant declines in the three factors that matter most (eFG%, TO%, OR%).

On the defensive side, they're missing the efforts of Chris Gaynor and Taj McCullough, both of whom ranked in the top 250 nationally in steal percentage (Gaynor was in the top ten). In their absence, Winthrop's steal rate is half what it was a year ago--bad news for a team that had a solid correlation between defensive TO% and offensive efficiency in 2008.

Starters:

Justin Burton (5-10, 162) -- His assist rate is nice enough in the early going, but he's otherwise been a poor imitation of Chris Gaynor at the point. He's shooting 48.4% while turning the ball over 24% of the time.

Raymond Davis (6-4, 195) -- Davis has been one of the Eagles' primary contributors but has struggled with his shooting to the point where coach Randy Peele felt it prudent to replace him in the starting lineup for their last game. He may come off the bench again tonight, but since he's started three of four games, I'm sticking him here.

Cameron Stanley (6-6, 221) -- The former Demon Deacon is off to a good start shooting the ball and leads the Eagles in scoring, but like the rest of the team, has had turnover problems.

Mantoris Robinson (6-5, 205) -- The only returning player who played more than 60% in 2008; he was terrible in a limited offensive role last season, shooting 48.3% from two and 20.0% (8-40) from three. He's been even worse in '09, shooting 46.2% from two and 0% (0-8; take a hint, dude) while also turning the ball over a lot.

Charles Corbin (6-7, 227) -- He's stepped up to the primary-contributor usage level with disastrous results: 38.7% shooting from two.

Bench:

Randy Peele says that Andre Jones (6-2, 190) and George Valentine (6-8, 240) could be in the starting lineup tonight, replacing Davis and Corbin, respectively. Might not be a bad idea:

 ORtg %Poss %Shots eFG% TO%
Davis 90.4 23.4 26.2 43.1 22.0
Jones 111.5 18.7 21.3 58.8 16.3
Corbin 87.1 24.3 25.9 40.9 21.0
Valentine 123.0 11.5 11.7 41.6 0.0

But in that case, who picks up the extra possessions? Jones and Valentine have been more efficient in part because they've occupied lesser roles.

Byron Faison (6-1, 200) will also see time at the two, and based on his numbers to date, he deserves most of it: he's producing a team-high 20.6 pts/40 minutes on the strength of 63% shooting.


Winthrop Defense 07-08Four FactorsPercentNat'l RankeFG%46.639Turnover Rate22.868Off Reb Rate28.926FTM/FGA33.6113

That's a pretty complete defense they had a year ago. Take a look at it now.