Previewing Davidson

2008 Scouting Report / 2009 Scouting Report / 2009 Game Plan
2009 Stats
2009 Schedule / 2009 Roster

Davidson Offense 07-08Four FactorsPercentNat'l RankeFG%54.127Turnover Rate16.711Off Reb Rate32.5181FTM/FGA19.1324

Stephen Curry hit 7-of-15 threes and scored 29 points against the Wolfpack last season, but State was able to limit his supporting cast and used lockdown defensive rebounding (the Wildcats managed only 4 offensive boards in 36 opportunities) along with a big FTA advantage to overcome a -7 turnover margin and edge Davidson by one. It was an off shooting night for the Cats, who were limited to 39.4% from inside the arc; all told, one of the Pack's finer defensive performances of 07-08.

Little about Davidson's offense has changed this season--they shoot well, take a lot of threes, and rarely commit turnovers. So the game plan remains the same for NC State, which again will need to dominate the defensive glass and hope that containing Curry's teammates will be enough. If they shoot as they typically do, the defensive rebounding's not likely to matter, though, with our complete inability to force turnovers. The Pack finished in the bottom 10% of I-A in defensive TO% in each of Sidney Lowe's first two seasons, and it doesn't look like his third is going to be any different. Against teams like Davidson, that deficiency is all the more glaring and problematic.

In the absence of Jason Richards, Stephen Curry has stepped into the point guard role (sort of), which has done wonders for his assist rate:

 ORtg %Poss %Shots eFG% Ast% TO% Pts/40 Ast/40
Curry '08 121.2 31.8 36.0 60.7 19.3 14.3 31.2 3.5
Curry '09 139.2 33.5 32.4 62.5 38.7 12.2 35.7 8.6

And he's still a disgustingly efficient scorer.

Starters:

Stephen Curry (6-3, 185) -- Oh Lord, bless this Thy hand grenade that with it Thou mayest blow Thine enemies to tiny bits, in Thy mercy.

Bryant Barr (6-4, 190) -- In limited minutes last season, Barr was a deadly three-point specialist who never turned the ball over but couldn't hit a two-pointer to save his life. Same deal this season, though his involvement is up a bit, in terms of both minutes and the frequency with which he shoots. His 24.1 %Shots figures is second to Curry among the starters.

Max Paulhus Gosselin (6-6, 210) -- Made 57.6% of his twos (38-66) ... and 12.1% of his threes (7-58!) in an extremely limited role last season. He's taking about 10% of the shots this year, just like '08, and may be starting to get the hint with regards to his outside shooting. Not much of a rebounder, and he doesn't get to the line very often.

Steve Rossiter (6-7, 230) -- Another efficient, really low usage type. Solid rebounder at both ends.

Andrew Lovedale (6-8, 220) -- Now that Boris Meno is gone, Lovedale has become the team's go-to post scorer, taking 20.9% of the shots versus 16.5% in 2008. That's worked out okay so far, as Lovedale is hitting a passable 53% of his twos. He is Davidson's best rebounder, particularly at the defensive end, where he's grabbed a ridiculous 30.3% of the misses.

Bench:

Brendan McKillop (6-0, 185) and Will Archambault (6-6, 220) are the only guys getting 30+% of the minutes off the bench so far this season; both take an average proportion of shots, both prefer to shoot threes, and both are not good at making them.

Davidson Defense 07-08Four FactorsPercentNat'l RankeFG%49.3141Turnover Rate24.035Off Reb Rate29.235FTA/FGA37.3186

The Wildcats are forcing turnovers at the same rate this season, despite poor steal and block rates. I'd call that a function of their weak schedule, but they did the same thing last season. Fouls have been a problem, especially for Rossiter and Paulhus Gosselin, and that's something we'll be looking to exploit with our inside-out style.