Same Old Story

Saturday saw NC State continue an impressive streak of hot shooting--it was the third consecutive game in which the Pack shot 60% or better, and the fourth time in the seven conference games since they've gone with the big lineup that they've hit the 60% mark.

That run has vaulted the Wolfpack all the way to #1 in the league in effective field goal percentage (53.2%). But something has held the team back from posting the kinds of jaw-dropping pts/poss numbers you would expect to come with 60% shooting: turnovers.

I've been wondering lately just how much those turnovers have been costing us; as it turns out, the answer is... a lot. To find that value, I subtracted the possessions that end in a turnover from the team's total possessions, which left just turnover-less (or "effective") possessions. Then it's just a matter of dividing points scored by turnover-less possessions.

On those effective possessions--where the team actually gets a crack at the basket--how many points does NC State score? See below. The table is sorted by points/effective possessions. Also included are overall offensive efficiency (pts/poss, including those possessions that end in turnovers), and turnover percentage.

 In Conference Play
.. Pts/100ePoss (Rk) Off_Eff (Rk) TO% (Rk)
UNC 140.9 (1) 114.9 (1) 18.5 (3)
BC 136.8 (2) 108.7 (3) 20.5 (6)
NCSU 136.3 (3) 104.4 (8) 23.4 (11)
Clem 136.1 (4) 109.7 (2) 19.4 (5)
WF 134.4 (5) 106.0 (6) 21.1 (10)
Miami 133.2 (6) 105.7 (7) 20.6 (8)
VT 129.6 (7) 106.0 (5) 18.2 (2)
Duke 129.1 (8) 107.2 (4) 17.0 (1)
FSU 125.5 (9) 99.6 (9) 20.6 (7)
UVA 122.7 (10) 97.3 (11) 20.7 (9)
UMD 121.7 (11) 99.1 (10) 18.6 (4)
GT 119.9 (12) 90.0 (12) 24.9 (12)

State's turnover problem chafes not just because it's been so typical in the last few seasons, but also because it costs so much. This offense can match the production of any of the ACC's offenses save Carolina's--when it isn't turning the ball over. In addition to the good shooting, NC State's free throw rate is also very good--third best in the league. And its offensive rebounding percentage, while nothing special, has improved. So the guys are doing a lot with the effective possessions they get. They just don't get enough.