Previewing Northwestern
2009 Scouting Report / 2009 Game Plan
2009 Stats
2010 Roster
2010 Schedule
Northwestern Offense '08-'09
| Four Factors | Percent | Nat'l Rank |
| eFG% | 52.6 | 51 |
| Turnover Rate | 17.8 | 34 |
| Off Reb Rate | 27.5 | 316 |
| FTA/FGA | 29.4 | 325 |
"Perimeter-oriented" does not begin to describe Northwestern's offensive inclinations. It's more like "oops, we accidentally scored inside the arc" or "EXTREME!!!!!!" More than half of their field goal attempts have come from outside (25 3FGA per game) and they have five guys averaging 5+ 3FGA/40 minutes, which has those five on pace for 100+ 3FGAs this season. Bill Carmody's teams have always put up a lot of threes, but never quite like this. You can probably chalk it up to early-season wackiness.
The Wildcats had a top-50 offense in 2009 on the strength of those first two factors; 42.2% of their attempts came from outside, and they hit an impressive 38.6% of those threes. This year's team hasn't been as successful from beyond the arc--they miss Kevin Coble and Craig Moore, who combined for 390 3FGAs and hit them at a 40% clip in '09--and their offensive efficiency has suffered as a result, but this is still a good offense. The biggest test to date for NC State's defense, no question.
Coble had a fantastic, underrated 2009 season (a slow pace has its PR drawbacks); he scored the ball efficiently both inside an out. If there's a prototypical Princeton Offense forward, he's it, and unfortunately those still do not grow on trees. But that's only because Herb Sendek's genetic researchers have yet to make a breakthrough. Top men continue to work the situation around the clock. It's a testament to Carmody's system and player development that the Cats have been able to carry on successfully without such a valuable player.
Starters
Michael Thompson (5-10, 182) -- Thompson, who has upped both his involvement in the offense and his efficiency, is one of the reasons why Northwestern is keepin' on. He's shooting well from everywhere on the court and enters Tuesday's game as the team's leading scorer.
Jeremy Nash (6-4, 191) -- Three-point specialist, role player.
Drew Crawford (6-5, 185) -- Ditto.
John Shurna (6-8, 210) -- Coble's injury has paved the way for Shurna's emergence as a go-to guy; he's taking 32.2% of Northwestern's shots when he's on the court, up from 24.6% last season. His three-point shooting has suffered for the bigger workload, but he's made improvements to his TO%, OR%, and Ast%, which has allowed him to maintain an offensive rating similar to last year's. That's no small feat.
Kyle Rowley (7-0, 280) -- Awful defensive rebounder for his size. Embarrassingly bad. He hasn't been getting a lot of minutes and probably won't make a significant contribution at the offensive end.
Bench
Luka Mirkovic (6-11, 235), who could start ahead of Rowley, and Alex Marcotullio (6-3, 180) round out the players averaging double-digit minutes. Mirkovic shouldn't get too involved and at any rate doesn't score very effectively; Marcotullio, meanwhile, has been Northwestern's best three-point shooter (11-21, 52.4%).
Mike Capocci (6-6, 200), Davide Curletti (6-9, 232), and Ivan Peljusic (6-8, 215) are possibilities as well.
Northwestern Defense '08-'09
| Four Factors | Percent | Nat'l Rank |
| eFG% | 49.6 | 191 |
| Turnover Rate | 24.4 | 12 |
| Off Reb Rate | 36.0 | 286 |
| FTA/FGA | 36.5 | 179 |
They forced turnovers in bunches last season, which was good since their FG% defense was merely adequate and they gave up lots of second opportunities. Judging by how frequently their opponents settled for outside shots, this looks like a team that plays a lot of zone. (Pomeroy's defensive fingerprint thing agrees.)
0 recs |
8 comments
|
Comments
Seeing the princeton O
again is going to bring back so many memories. Not necessarily good memories, but memories nonetheless.
Modified Princeton Offense
The good thing about the Modified Princeton Offense is that it will beat a lot of teams if you execute it well. The bad thing about it is that it will not consistently beat the BEST teams out there. That’s why Herb won enough games to get invited to the big dance, but faltered once he got there and faced good teams. It’s also why he never beat Duke and Carolina with any consistency.
The bad news for us is that we’re not one of those “BEST” teams yet. We might struggle with this offense tonight. I think we struggled and lost in that controlled scrimmage we had before our exhibition game.
I have a bad feeling about tonight’s game.
The bad thing about it is that it will not consistently beat the BEST teams out there. That’s why Herb won enough games to get invited to the big dance, but faltered once he got there and faced good teams. It’s also why he never beat Duke and Carolina with any consistency.
I disagree with you on this, but I don’t know that you’re wrong. I just don’t think you can definitively point to the offense as the problem. I tend to think the lack of success against UNC and Duke was simply due to the fact that those teams were better than we were in general.
That's my point
That’s my point. Carolina and Duke are among the BEST teams out there. Name a national championship contender that runs this offense. When you have better athletes, you don’t run this type of offense. When you have lesser athletes, this offense helps you get more wins than you would otherwise get running a more “traditional” offense.
I didn’t come up with any of this myself. I’ve read analyses about this, and this is the general consensus on this type of offense.
The funny thing is
that herb got derided by the national media for using that offense while he was at ncsu, with them saying pretty much what you are. Now he is coaching legend destined for greatness.
I believe tonight the game will be close, played at a very deliberate pace. I am hoping for a cold night from behind the arc for NW.
As a NU fan, a couple points...
1) Nash is not a 3-point specialist at all. He’s a defensive specialist (he takes the top point when we play in the 1-3-1 zone) who can be EXTREMELY disruptive at that position. I know little about NC State (sorry, it’s still football season in Evanston until the Cats win their bowl game), but you’ll need solid guard play to keep Nash (and to a lesser extent, Thompson) from stealing a lot of balls.
2) That being said, Nash can score. He’s probably our best player at dribble penetration other than Juice Thompson, and does occasionally hoist up a 3 (but he’s much more likely to drive). He’s also a pretty solid FT shooter, meaning he’s great for late game defensive purposes should NU get the lead.
3) Crawford is a freshman, and thus an enigma — he’s had some really impressive games, and is probably destined for greatness at NU, but he’s still learning the Princeton offense and getting used to the college game. Marcotullio has arguably been a much bigger weapon offensively as a freshman, which was surprising to fans (Crawford was pretty highly ranked for a NU recruit), but can be attributed to his ice-water-in-his-veins propensity for drilling 3-pointers when the pressure is on. Both of these guys are getting valuable minutes they probably wouldn’t have seen with Coble and senior Jeff Ryan around (Ryan tore his ACL in our first game).
4) The “early season wackiness” in the 3-point numbers is mainly attributable to the fact that we were behind against Butler (and thus had to force up 3s), and the fact that our last two wins came against Notre Dame and Iowa State, who boast All-American PFs in Harangody and Brackins, respectively. No sense forcing it down low against those guys — it made a lot more sense to kick it out and try to open up the court with 3s.
5) Rowley continues to disappoint — the guy is huge and should be better, but he was clearly hampered in working on his offensive game by an offseason broken foot. Cats fans still hope he figures it out (he left high school a year early to play, so he’s still developing, as this would have been his freshmen year if he had not jumped to college so quickly).
6) I’m hoping for a good game tonight from both sides. Being a Northwestern basketball fan is pretty much the toughest gig in all of sports — we have NEVER made the NCAA Tournament. That’s right — never. Then, this year, when we FINALLY look capable, our All-Big Ten senior Kevin Coble gets a Lisfranc fracture in his foot before our first game, and our backup senior guard/forward Jeff Ryan tears his ACL in his first game — two big contributors, gone before we knew it, and in the year we were FINALLY going to be pushing to the NCAAs.
Which is why the recent play of Shurna/Thompson and the rest of the team has been so promising — winning the Chicago Invitational (and defeating unbeaten Notre Dame and Iowa State to do it) was a huge boost for our team — a sign that this year may be THE YEAR after all. You’ll be the third straight undefeated team we’ve faced, so the task is daunting, but we need to rack up these non-conference wins before hitting the really rough Big Ten stretch, where there will quite literally be no easy games (okay, some against Iowa).
But if this year isn’t THE YEAR for the Cats, next year is shaping up pretty nicely. Fortunately, Coble has a red-shirt year and will almost definitely be back next year, which might mean that we’re REALLY good next year, when you combine him with all the young players getting time this year (Nash is our only other senior), and our 4-star PG recruit Jershonn Cobb.
Anyways, good luck to the Pack….but GO CATS!
Thanks, Chadnudj!
Thanks for the info and perspective from a Northwestern fan. I hope you guys make it to the NCAA’s (along with us!), but I hope you stumble tonight. GO PACK!!!

by 








