Create Your Own Concern Level

by Akula Wolf on Aug 12, 2009 3:24 PM EDT

On the heels of the Jimmaul Simmons news, JP Giglio noted that there wasn't much in the way of good passing offenses in the ACC last season, and that that figures to be true again in 2009, so it's no time to panic. Fine, fine. *slowly backs away from ledge*

But while no ACC offense finished in the top 50 nationally in passing, a number of them performed like top 50 passing offenses against NC State, and about three quarters of State's opponents had above-average passing days.

	Vs. NCSU				Vs. Everyone Else
Opponent	Comp%	PassYds	Yds/Att	..........	Comp%	PassYds/G	Yds/Att
USC	63.0	198	7.3		54.6	224.5	6.3
Clemson	71.4	262	9.4		61.3	214.2	6.9
ECU	59.4	210	6.6		59.2	214.3	7.2
USF	63.6	275	8.3		62.6	236.7	7.6
BC	66.7	428	8.4		50.1	157.2	5.1
FSU	65.7	254	7.3		53.4	187.7	6.4
Maryland	45.0	126	6.3		57.5	213.4	6.8
Duke	71.2	317	6.1		58.9	186.8	5.7
Wake	64.7	240	7.1		63.1	182.5	6.5
UNC	50.0	147	5.3		57.5	203.1	8.3
Miami	65.6	269	8.4		57.0	190.8	6.0
Rutgers	57.9	319	8.4		60.5	266.3	8.5

(First three columns: what our opponents did against us. Second three: what they did against everyone else, excluding their numbers against NC State. Green: held opponent below season average in that category. Red: opponent exceeded season average in that category.)

Adjust your concern as you see fit.

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Comments

Well, it depends on what level above average is a great concern

For example, I just pulled this into Excel, and I see that there are 6 games where we allowed our opponent’s completion percentage to be over 5% above their average. Then there were 6 games that we allowed teams greater than 50 yards above their average passing yards per game, but not the same 6. And, there were only 3 where the opponents’ yd/att was more than 1 a yard above their average.

I guess there is reason for concern. Our offense should be better than last year, but our defense may be about the same, unless we see some early development from a couple of true freshmen.

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Aug 12, 2009 4:31 PM EDT reply actions

An improved possession offense should lower the defensive yards a little all by itself. Maybe not the yards per attempt or completion percentage, but the total, at least.

I have a feeling we’ll get more than our share of come-from-behind victories … for the other team.

by PeeDub on Aug 12, 2009 6:00 PM EDT reply actions