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Wake Forest, Still What She Used To Be

I should know better at this point, and if anyone's earned the benefit of the doubt, it's Jim Grobe.  Wake Forest's recent success has at times felt like smoke and mirrors, more opportunism than skill, but whatever the case, they keep getting it done.  Heading into 2009, it would have been prudent to assume the Deacs would be a solid team until they proved otherwise.  I figured instead that their personnel losses were too significant to make avoiding a step backward possible.  So far this season, they look very much like a team still capable of wreaking havoc in the ACC, and they'll probably get to 7 wins again, albeit in a very different way.  God they're annoying.  They've become one of those consistent programs that you wish could have one damn off year.  It has to happen some time just give me one. Wake Forest!  Wake Forest is one of those programs for me now.  Jim Grobe deserves Presidential recognition and a large cash gift because can you believe this shit?  Your incomprehensible genius is a national treasure, please take a billion dollars as a token of our wonder.

Anyway.  The defense hasn't been able to withstand the loss of Aaron Curry, among others; they're allowing about 50 more yards per game in '09 than they did last season and opponent production on a per-play basis is up from 4.6 yards to 5.3.  That drop has taken the unit from good to middling.  None of this is surprising, and it was supposed to be the primary reason for a year of pain.  

Making matters worse, forcing turnovers hasn't been as easy for the Deacs as it has in the past.  They have a -4 margin through four games, they've had a negative margin in three of four games, and they're on a 12-takeaway pace.  This after 30+ takeaways in 2006, 2007, and 2008.

Right, so they're lacking the two things recent history says Grobe's teams need in order to be successful.  This is of no apparent consequence to the head coach/magic man.

Wake Offense Yards/G Yards/Play
2006 307.0 5.2
2007 340.5 4.7
2008 308.3 4.5
2009 412.3 6.1

 

Riley Skinner is completing nearly 69% of his passes this season and averaging 8.7 yards per attempt, he may have found a big play guy in receiver Marshall Williams (20 rec., 329 yds), and the running game is more effective than it has been in years.  But how well will this offense hold up in conference play?  Their 7.5 yards-per-play effort against BC is a fine start, but it's hard to trust this unit considering its track record. 

See, there I go again.  Jim Grobe finds a way, no matter how confusing or unfamiliar.  (Besides, the football gods will grant Wake Forest five takeaways per game from here on. They regret the oversight, coach.)

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If we win the turnover battle, we win this game.

Unfortunately, we’ve shown a shocking inability to force turnovers if you throw out the Murray State laugher.

I got a REAL bad feeling about this game… probably just 5 years of post-Philip conditioning, quite honestly… but I wouldn’t be shocked to see us lay an absolute egg.

by wolfonthehill on Sep 29, 2009 11:36 PM EDT reply actions  

Remember 2003?

Philip’s senior year, fresh off the Gator Bowl win the season prior, we waxed WCU to start the year and then promptly pooped the bed the following week in Winston-Salem.

For some reason, this game has the same feeling to me. Fresh off a big win, fantastic QB at the helm, solid defense…no way in hell we lose, right? Right?

Right?…

All Wolfpack, all the time.

by YANCSSB on Sep 30, 2009 12:17 AM EDT reply actions  

Exactly

Incidentally, that was the infamous game where J-Co was decapitated via his facemask at the end of a long pass play, right?

That one started me on a path of disliking Wake… and it’s continued with some of their blocking schemes…

by wolfonthehill on Sep 30, 2009 5:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

i wish i didn't remember

But I went to that game. It was supposed to be an encouraging start to The Year Of Great Triumph but instead we left confused and deeply concerned about the defense.

I don’t get that same feeling about this year’s game, but I share your (and woth’s) uneasiness.

by Akula Wolf on Sep 30, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't overlook Wake

But, I have a feeling that TOB has them on his list of teams he most wants to beat. He has seen the importance to the fanbase having bragging rights in the state, and he’s made a specific effort to own the other teams in NC.

Still, I think the key is going to be tackling. If the tackling is better in this game, I expect a win. If not, they’ll probably run all over us.

For ideas on statistical analyses, email me at wolfpacksteelersfan@gmail.com.

by WolfpackSteelersFan on Sep 30, 2009 1:36 PM EDT reply actions  

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