Previewing Florida State

2009 Scouting Report / 2009 Game Plan / 2010 Scouting Report / 2010 Game Plan
2010 Stats
2010 Roster
2010 Schedule

 

Florida State Offense 08-09
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 49.2 163
Turnover Rate 22.7 291
Off Reb Rate 35.0 89
FTA/FGA 39.2 93
Florida State Offense 09-10
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 53.5 42
Turnover Rate 24.7 323
Off Reb Rate 39.7 19
FTA/FGA 39.6 114

 

 

 

 

 

 

Solomon Alabi's decision to stay in school erased any doubts as to whether or not FSU's defense would pick up where it left off.  With their enormousity intact, they'd continue to make life in the paint damn near impossible.  And they have.

On the other hand, it was hard to imagine a team that was offensively challenged even with Toney Douglas moving forward without him.  Douglas shouldered a massive workload, providing reliable shooting and ball security, two things the rest of the roster sorely lacked.

Turnover rate excepted, the '10 Seminoles have avoided complete disaster with an impressive group effort.  A number of guys--Alabi, Singleton, Dulkys, Reid (!), Gibson--are shooting the basketball a lot better in 2010 than they did in 2009.  Some of them won't hold up in conference play, but for now, so far so good.

The way they're shooting, rebounding at the offensive end, and playing D, they're going to be in every game, even if they make it unpleasant on the eyes for everyone involved.  If they cut down on the giveaways and start leveraging turnovers in their favor...

Starters:

Derwin Kitchen (6-4, 204) -- Not shooting the ball well but also not taking enough shots to make him a significant detriment.  Good assist rate, though turnovers are a problem.

Deividas Dulkys (6-5, 196) --

Dulkys ORtg %Shots 3FGA/FGA 3FG%
2009 89.5 22.3 79.7 28.6
2010 135.1 25.6 77.0 45.7


He's also managed to cut his turnover rate in half.

Chris Singleton (6-9, 227) -- He's made some solid improvements to his DR% and Ast% but remains an unreliable scorer inside the arc and at the line, and his turnover percentage is way up.  Lots of untapped potential here, it feels like.

Ryan Reid (6-8, 238) -- Reid could rarely be mistaken for a useful player over the course of his first three seasons; he shot decently enough but shot only occasionally, he didn't rebound at the defensive end, and to call him a turnover machine was to put it kindly.  Not one to miss the opportunity to pile on from the relative anonymity of the internet, he's been my favorite punching bag (the most decorated player in BTP Awards history).  Here, then, are the kind words I owe him: he's having the best, most efficient season of his career while also shouldering more possessions than he ever has.  Still too many turnovers and not enough defensive boards.  Nonetheless, kudos to you, sir, you've come a long way.  (Injury note: Reid hurt his ankle against Maryland but returned to the game after getting some treatment, so I'm assuming he's good to go.  Haven't been able to find an update.)

Solomon Alabi (7-1, 251) -- Lord have mercy.  Alabi is an excellent offensive rebounder who is making 58.7% of his twos and 82% of his free throws.  The linchpin of Florida State's brutal interior defense, his block percentage is north of 12%.

Bench:

Michael Snaer (6-5, 200), Luke Loucks (6-5, 196), Jordan DeMercy (6-7, 215), Xavier Gibson (6-11, 240).  Tall, tall, tall, and more tall.  Snaer and Gibson are heavily involved when they're on the floor, while Loucks and DeMercy are likely to spend their time in the periphery.  They're all turnover prone.

Florida State Defense 08-09
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 44.7 19
Turnover Rate 22.1 77
Off Reb Rate 34.9 264
FTA/FGA 35.7 159
Florida State Defense 09-10
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 40.1 2
Turnover Rate 23.8 37
Off Reb Rate 33.4 188
FTA/FGA 29.0 34

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is as tough as it gets for Tracy Smith and the rest of NC State's front court.  Florida State ranks 1st in 2FG% D, 7th in block percentage, and 35th in steal percentage.  They're both big and active, forcing opponents into lots of mistakes in addition to lots of missed shots. I said this about Wake Forest a few weeks ago:

Almost 37% of their opponents' FGAs are coming from three, which indicates that most opponents view the lane as like a scary cave with dude there could be bats in there.

That goes for FSU as well.  I hate bats.

The Pomeroy Predictor likes FSU by 12.

The only way I see us having a shot is if 1.) we rebound brilliantly at the defensive end and 2.) force FSU to turn the ball over at least 25% of the time. (We also need to shoot well, but that goes without saying.)  If we don't do those two things, the predicted margin of defeat will look generous in hindsight.

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