Previewing Wisconsin

2009 Scouting Report / 2009 Game Plan / 2010 Scouting Report / 2010 Game Plan / 2011 Scouting Report
2011 Stats
2011 Roster
2011 Schedule

Wisconsin Offense 08-09
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 49.9 133
Turnover Rate 16.0 5
Off Reb Rate 31.6 221
FTA/FGA 34.6 214
Wisconsin Offense 09-10
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 51.4 69
Turnover Rate 14.9 3
Off Reb Rate 30.5 249
FTA/FGA 32.5 296

 

 

 

 

 

In a certain sense, NC State has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at its decade-long defensive rebounding problem.  We've had tall teams, short teams, smart teams, dumb teams; big guards, guards slash forwards, quick forwards, hulking forwards; a Scooter, a Corn Dog, and a dude known as Big Lazy.  (In retrospect, Big Lazy may have been a misguided fix.)

Meanwhile, Bo Ryan simply threatens the look pictured above and his team grabs every defensive board in sight.  If looks could kill or, uh, rebound, that one certainly would.  He'll have to be forgiven these occasional moments of extreme disbelief, because his program's staples--defensive rebounding among them--have become so ingrained as to be assumed.  You pretty much know what you're going to get from Wisconsin: they will play deliberately (last year they were one of the five slowest teams in the country), they will rarely turn the ball over, and they will clean up the defensive glass.

TO% (Rank) Def Reb % (Rank)
2003 16.5 (5) 71.2(11)
2004 16.0 (4) 69.5 (38)
2005 17.9 (22) 74.1 (2)
2006 17.3 (9) 68.1 (72)
2007 17.3 (19) 71.5 (9)
2008 19.1 (60) 71.3 (21)
2009 16.0 (5) 73.7 (4)
2010 14.9 (3) 73.7 (2)


What this means in general terms is that the Badgers are going to get more shots at the basket than their opponents, night in, night out.  Ryan doesn't bring in star-studded recruiting classes very often, but he's as good as it gets at developing the well-regarded players he does sign and building smart teams.  (It's probably redundant at this point, but for the sake of full disclosure I'll note that I have a slight man-crush on Bo Ryan.  If his program had any sex appeal, he'd be rolling in a Scrooge McDuck-sized pool of rings.)

Starters

Jordan Taylor (6-1, 195) -- Taylor took a big step forward as a sophomore in 2010 and was about as efficient as guy shooting 45.7% could be.  His assist rate was good, and his turnover rate--a little under 12%--was phenomenal for a point guard.  The lingering question, especially for someone who figures to be a big part of the offense in 2011, is his shooting accuracy.  He improved his effectiveness from the stripe in 2010, which is a start.  But he wasn't very accurate inside or out, and he took a lot of shots.

Josh Gasser (6-3, 185) -- Gasser is responding well for a freshman, at least early on.  It helps to be eased in as a role player.  He's scored effectively from two and at the line, but the outside shot isn't there yet.  If his high FT% is an accurate reflection of his ability there, his three-point shooting should come around.

Mike Bruesewitz (6-6, 220) -- Bruesewitz didn't prove much as a freshman in 2010 except that he could rebound.  His minutes have increased this season but his role has not, and that's allowed him to become an effective spot-scorer in the early going.  How well he holds up in conference play remains to be seen.

Jon Leuer (6-10, 228) -- Leuer has been a high-usage player since 2009, and he's gone from a somewhat questionable go-to guy to a bona fide one.  Last season he made 72% of his free throws, 55% of his twos, and 39% of his threes, rarely turning the ball over in the process.  Wisconsin doesn't place the emphasis on offensive rebounds that some schools do, and that's probably the main reason why his offensive rebounding percentage underwhelms; at the other end, though, he's a big part of the Badgers' success.

Keaton Nankivil (6-8, 240) -- An efficient scorer in the paint who isn't afraid to step out side and fire up a three.  Considering the disparity in effectiveness inside the arc and outside of it, he might be better off focusing more on the interior.  Wisconsin's best offensive rebounder.

Bench

Ryan Evans (6-6, 210), Tim Jarmusz (6-6, 205), Jared Berggren (6-10, 235), Rob Wilson (6-4, 198), Wquinton Smith (5-10, 205).  Evans is off to a tough start from the field, but he is an outstanding defensive rebounder for a 6-6 guy. 

Jarmusz got solid minutes last season but took only 8.6% of the shots, placing him high on the Cortney Dunn invisibility scale.  When he does shoot, it'll more often than not come from outside.  In '09 he was an effective three-point specialist, while last year he lost his touch.  Eighteen of his 21 FGAs this season have come from three.

Wquinton Smith is known primarily for his unusual first name, which is not a typo.  Or so his parents insist.  His profile helpfully notes that it's pronounced "Quinton," which makes the 'W' altogether pointless and a tad ostentatious.  Further, it creates a dangerous precedent for future generations, because what's to stop someone from naming his or her child, say, PPPpppFrankQQQqq.  That's not a country I can live in.

Wisconsin Defense 08-09
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 48.9 156
Turnover Rate 19.3 228
Off Reb Rate 26.3 4
FTA/FGA 34.1 122
Wisconsin Defense 09-10
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 46.8 77
Turnover Rate 20.0 201
Off Reb Rate 26.3 2
FTA/FGA 36.1 140

 

 

 

 

 

Wisconsin's FG% defense is typically good, and they grab three out of every four missed shots, so hey, who needs turnovers?  It must be nice, Wisconsin. It must be real nice.  God you guys are such jerks.

The Pomeroy Predictor likes Wisconsin by eight.

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