Plus/Minus
by Akula Wolf on Dec 13, 2010 9:00 AM EST
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PrintLongtime readers might remember that I took up the +/- project back in 2008. There are a lot of caveats that come with this form of evaluation, but I think when it's done right--that is when done with a with-or-without-you approach, adjusted for tempo, with player pairs and full five-man lineup data--it can be pretty enlightening. I'm not all the way there yet. I'm still at the with-or-without-you level, which sheds some light but is obscured quite a bit by the impact of a given player's teammates.
Here is what I have so far. (Wisconsin game not included since they didn't bother to include substitution data in the box score.) The key columns are in bold--the team's offensive and defensive efficiency while a given player was on or off the court. It's way too early in the season and the process for concrete conclusions, but this at least offers a glimpse at how guys are helping or hurting the team.
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Vandenberg and CJ Williams should only see the court in throw away minutes or emergency relief… Did I see that correctly (a -55) for Vanderberg on the floor? I’m hoping I can understand it right, but that is what it looked like to me.
Great work!
-1 with him on the court, +55 with him on the bench
A net of -56. Defense has not been so good when he’s in the game…
from what i think i see, it looks like Wood is the man.
i haven’t looked at Wood’s minutes, but i think that he did not come out of the game in the second half at Syracuse. further, i would bet that Wood played the most minutes against UpState.
if i had an issue with Wood, it woud be his apparent lack of confidence in short range shots. Saturday against UpState, Wood got by his man and drove into the lane going up for about a ten foot shot. Instead of shooting, Wood tried to thow it over his shoulder back to Williams for what would have been a longer shot. i do not think anyone was in position to block Wood’s shot, he just did not appear to want to take the shot.
Indeed, his net total is the best on the team so far.
He’s logged more minutes than anyone this season.
Just to really increase your workload,...
I’d love to see a plus/minus of different 5-man lineups to see which combinations of players seem to be working the best together.
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by RiddickAndReynolds on Dec 14, 2010 9:34 AM EST reply actions
The inherent problem with that being, of course...
that Sidney plays about 5^5 different lineup combinations in a year.
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by RiddickAndReynolds on Dec 14, 2010 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
Tell you what.
I’m bored, so I think I might try and compile that here at work. I have no idea how long it will take, but we’ll see.
If I get through the first game in under 30 minutes, I might keep going. :)
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by RiddickAndReynolds on Dec 14, 2010 9:58 AM EST up reply actions
Ok, so this is from the Tennessee Tech game
It’s not pretty, nor perfect, but it does tend to isolate lineups that were solid in a game.
The lineup of Lo, CJL, Tracy, Javi and Scott had the greatest +/- of any one stretch, from the 10:16-7:17 mark of the first half when they put up a +7. That lineup was only on the court for one other stretch, to start the second half, but played TTU to a dead heat over the first 3:16. That they all started in the second half—versus the original starting lineup of Lo, Tracy, Javi, Scott and Richard Howell—makes me wonder if Sidney’s staff is tracking these +/- numbers to see which lineups are most effective.
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by RiddickAndReynolds on Dec 14, 2010 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
And one other thought
With this system, it might need a per-minute +/- to get a better feel for how explosive a particular lineup is at one time. Judging a lineup that went +3 over 5:00 versus one who went +3 over 0:30 is not an even comparison.
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by RiddickAndReynolds on Dec 14, 2010 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
I'm working my way toward that.
I have data for lineups in every game, just haven’t put it all together yet. Thanks for getting the ball rolling.
Also, re: your comment about a per-minute adjustment…you’re absolutely right, and it’s coming. That’s one of the things I did with individuals the first time around. I’ll probably stick with a per-40 minute standard.
Pleasant surprise...
…seeing Painter’s +/- as good as it is. If Harrow and Leslie can improve as the season continues, we should be really tough with Tracy back.
I was surprised at how good the defense is when he's out there
He may be a better defender than I give him credit for.
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