Addressing The Defense Problem...Again
by Akula Wolf on Feb 1, 2010 7:19 PM EST
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But the slide hasn’t been as sudden or as it appears on the surface. The Pack’s offense was playing well enough to mask the rest of the problems, particularly when the 3-pointers start falling. Any gameplan that involves shooting 60 percent from the floor or 50 percent from behind the arc to succeed isn’t a gameplan, its wish-casting. The truth is in the defense. And the Pack defense has been on a steady downhill slide since ACC play picked up. Virginia shot 43 percent, Florida State shot 46 percent, Clemson shot 49 percent. The Pack bucked the trend briefly when it forced the Blue Devils to shoot 39 percent from the floor. But it was back to business as usual when Maryland shot 53 percent and the Tar Heels shot 51 percent. Overall, opponents are shooting 46 percent in conference play and over 36 percent on 3-pointers. A far cry from what the Pack had been able to do early in the year, when it could force less athletic teams into bad shots. Combined with all the troubles the Pack has had creating turnovers and getting defensive rebounds and you end up with the worst defensive team in the conference.
The defensive picture was different in a good way through the first four conference games; State had allowed conference foes to score 1.06 points per trip--that's bad, but not the sort of holy-crap-bad we've seen throughout the Lowe era. Now? Welcome back to holy-crap-bad.
| NCSU | Def_Eff | ACC Avg Def_Eff |
| 2009 | 111.0 | 104.1 |
| 2010 | 111.1 | 100.8 |
(conf games only)
Right back where we were last year. Worse off, actually, when you consider how much further away we are from the conference average. All four factors have been sliding in the wrong direction since that first glance a couple of weeks ago; eFG% D has ballooned north of 50%, TO% is back down around where it was in '09, and opponents are grabbing almost 37% of their missed shots. Unlike Lowe's previous teams, this one does not keep opponents off the free throw line. The decline in that particular area is astoundingly severe. The in-conference defensive rankings look like this: 11th in eFG%, 10th in TO%, 7th in DR%, 11th in FTR.
| Opponent | Avg Off_Eff in ACC Play | Off_Eff vs. NCSU |
| Wake | 98.8 | 97.1 |
| UVA | 104.6 | 109.4 |
| FSU | 96.3 | 111.0 |
| Clemson | 93.9 | 112.3 |
| Duke | 108.2 | 105.7 |
| UMD | 108.6 | 131.3 |
| UNC | 100.0 | 116.7 |
The turnover percentage is a problem without an answer. I've accepted that much. It seems like the Pack should be better on the defensive glass, but here we run into the Dennis Horner problem. Howell, Vandenberg, and Tracy Smith are the team's best defensive rebounders. Horner, with a DR% in conference play of 6.7, is barely visible. (Which is nothing new.) In a lineup with Javi, Degand, Wood, and Smith, Horner is the worst defensive rebounder on the floor. Suffice it to say we could use just a tad more from the guy at the 4-spot, especially since offensive demands require that he play a lot. I'd still like to see Vandenberg get 10+ minutes a game just for the hell of it, just to see what happens. That reflects my new philosophy, which is: let's get crazy with it. I want to see every single basketball defense that's ever been invented, one after the other. Let's kitchen sink the hell out of some people. We play worse, big deal, nothing changes.
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well, i, also, had an epiphany; right after the unc game-
Lowe can’t coach. after seeing Avatar, every movie i go to does not seem very good-and maybe they are not. after watching State play against Duke and against Clemson in the second half, every game i watched State play didn’t seem to be very good. Right! they weren’t. that micromanaged slow tempo inside out game Lowe prefers “jest” don’t get it. maybe with more 5 star recruits it will look better, but i am of a “show me” mind on that.
as to Horner, he has been awful against Maryland, UNC and Central for the most part. is he hurting from that knee he banged against Florida? if so, why play him. let Howell and Painter get his minutes. heck, why play him anyway. down on Lowe and the Pack much as i was with Sendek and seniors Thorton and Inge.
NC State Basketball...
Let’s get crazy with it! Great slogan for next year. I too am of the ilk that Vandenberg should be garnering more PT. He is our best post defender and a good rebounder. My question is, could we play a morning radio show host lineup of Macrowave and The Berg? If Horner isn’t scoring, he’s not doing anything. I hope he turns it around when the knee feels better, but I have my doubts. A hefty portion of our drop in FTR Def can probably be attributed to Scott “Slap Hands” Wood. He has got to learn not to reach in so much.
i'd be willing to go with Macrowave/Vberg
But again, I’m up for anything. Plus, imagine how fearsome that would be, opponents forced to choose between getting their faces melted off or getting their shots sent to Garner. This would be 100% win.
I preferred your previous philosophy
Which, of course, was “Be motherfuckers”.
Nonetheless, excellent analysis, Steven… we expect nothing less. Thanks, man…
we can be motherfuckers while we're getting crazy with it
In fact I think this two point-plan is foolproof.
Exactly
I know you probably don’t actually subscribe to PackPride Steve (which is totally cool its not like I pay to read your stuff), but I was espousing the kitchen sink philosophy on our boards as well.
Just try anything and see if it works. I defended Horner’s minutes early in ACC play but I’m officially on the ‘bench Horner’ train.
We actually appear SCARED to fall out of last place at times
To quote a… hmmm… someone… “We are who we are”. We seem to have adopted that as a mantra, and we appear to be scared to succeed… to be anything but a doormat. Anytime actual success comes knocking, we act like Punxatawny Phil on a sunny day, and we refuse to come out & play.
Scared of our shadows… that pretty much describes it. Our program truly is like Groundhog Day… in more ways than I realized.
by wolfonthehill on Feb 2, 2010 6:50 AM EST up reply actions
Great article Steven
I love these kind of entries. Well, I would actually love them better if these numbers showed that State was improving.
I have been a fan of Horner’s since his freshman year when he could not miss an open shot. It has become obvious that if he is not hitting open 3 pointers, he is a detriment to the team in every facet of the game. Howell and Vberg need to see much more time.
I also like the kitchen sink approach.
Horner is just 6-23 from downtown in ACC play
He was so good during the non-conference part of the schedule that I think it’s gotta be the knee bothering him. Hope he gets over it soon.
how about the opposite approach of
four guards and smith for a real up tempo offense. isn’t this basically what villanova runs?
What four guards
are we going to put out there? We don’t even have 2 good guards.
by PACKHOOLIGAN on Feb 2, 2010 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
at one point i would have been in agreement
that State dosen’t have two good guards. however, i am rethinking things even so far as to go back to last year. i, as many, felt that Costner, McCauley and to a lesser extent, Fells had bad attitudes and quit in games sometimes. but, what if, after three years they having played in Lowe’s system, realized it wasn’t going to work. that would be no excuse for quiting, but it would not be the first time players quit or half quit on a coach and his system. in the same vein, what if Lowe’s system makes it look like state’s guards aren’t any good-Lowe’s system is so bad that it is hard for the guards to do well running it. Lowe took a different approach offensivley and defensively agains Duke, and State’s guards didn’t look half bad at all. just a thought.
you're pinning way too much on the system
The guard play against Duke is probably coincidence. I like to think of performance from a baseline talent perspective. Most games they’ll play near their baseline levels, some nights they’ll be particularly bad, some nights particularly good. Nothing going on here except you reading too much into random variances in performance levels IMO.
look,
up until the Clemson and Duke game, i had nothing to which to compare the offense Lowe prefers to run. thus, i had no issues with it. in the Clemson and Duke game it appears to me that State was more concerned with guard penetration and less concerned with the inside out game. i was really surprised at how hard Mays worked at this and well he did this. plus, the defense changed to a full court trap. uptempo, more scoring, better offense. also, if one takes a look at the Marquette game, it appears that State made its decisive run with Havi more concerned with penetrating the defense than with running an inside out game. Smith excels in this type of offense. i know, i know, i am beating a drum over and over. :-) and maybe its a dead drum.
What are the biggest problems with our defense?
I have noticed an extreme lack of help rotation (this has pretty much been the case in all of Lowe’s teams as I think woth has pointed out frequently). When one player gets beat, and another defender steps up to stop the ball, the other defenders need to rotate to cut off the best scoring opportunities. Everyone seems to be focused solely on their man, and they do not play as a unit. Also, Tracy is really bad for watching the ball and letting his guy beat him for position in the post.
I would consider Javi, Farnold, Julius, and CJ all to be subpar defenders. Javi is fairly good at getting into passing lanes, but bigger guards are able to go by and over him pretty easily. When the opposing team’s guards are getting into the lane, the big guys have to help out, causing them to get out of rebounding position.
My top 3
1 – We’re slow
2 – We’re slow
3 – We’re slow
by wolfonthehill on Feb 2, 2010 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
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