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Sure, It's Bad. But In A Whole New Way!

While I was wrapping up last season, I highlighted a couple of things I thought were going to be important this season.  Let's see how State's doing.

1.) Get the TO% under 20.0. There is going to be a significant adjustment period as guys who've either never played at the college level or aren't used to heavy minutes at the college level attempt to get comfortable with what's expected of them. It's likely that shooting and overall cohesiveness is going to be a problem for a while, which makes it extremely important that they give themselves as many effective possessions as possible.

I already touched on this a bit earlier today.  Lo and behold, the guards have managed to cut down on giveaways and the freshmen have for the most part avoided extended periods of dumbassery (at least when it comes to TOs).  Go figure.

In ACC Play TO% Opp TO% TO Margin
2007 22.5 17.1 -58
2008 23.8 16.4 -80
2009 22.3 17.2 -57
2010 18.9 19.2 +2

 

But when I said that shooting and cohesion were probably going to be issues for a while, I was thinking they'd be issues for, say, a month and a half.  I was not thinking that the offense would start out okay and then self-destruct in late January.  State has been held to sub-45% shooting in eight of ten conference games, sub-40% in each of the last three.  Still, what they've done with the turnover rate is a minor but laud-worthy triumph.  Imagine how bad this offense would be if the guys were turning it over like they did last year.  Reports of controllers hurled at televisions would be up 4000 percent.

2.) Clearly define roles sooner. Tracy Smith's insertion into the lineup was one reason why the offense became more efficient, but Lowe's transition to a tighter (generally 8-man) lineup shouldn't be overlooked either. I don't think it was a coincidence that when the role players found their minutes growing more consistent they started playing better. The sooner the coaches establish a set of expectations for the new contributors (before January would be preferable), the better off the team is going to be. Save the trial and error for pre-conference play. The production is going to be inconsistent, and that's okay, but I think the coaches need to do a better job of looking past small samples and staying focused on the long-term plan.

Nine different guys have started a conference game this season.  It is a well-known fact that Coach Fowler selects the starting lineup by firing darts at a board after he's consumed four pre-game whiskey sours.  He hasn't hit the Johnny Thomas bullseye yet, but I have to think it's just a matter of time.  Until then, everything continues to come up Josh Davis.

The way the team is playing these days, this seems like more of a peripheral issue, anyway.  It would help if people would stop getting the flu and/or running into sharp metal objects, but what are you gonna do.

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A whole round of Prozac for the team...

Honestly, I don’t think we are that bad this year – and definitely think we are playing better offense (except for shooting) than anytime in the last 3 years, but it hasn’t translated into wins. We can’t shoot, then we get down (hence, the Prozac), and it’s a self-fulfilling downward spiral.

Our defense is very weak and we seem to lose sight of players – allowing them open shots. AND We aren’t able to hit a decent percentage of shots. I really believe that if our shooting improves, our defense will improve (since it’s due to lack of concentration – we were playing much better defense earlier in the year). Why we can’t seem to shoot well is beyond me since I can’t shoot well either.

I’m willing to wait one more year to see what Lowe can do with at least one ‘4-star’ guard on the court.

I just hope that Tracy Smith doesn’t bolt for the NBA this summer – he’s unstoppable now that he can pass out of traps and has a great spin move. He should make 1st team All-ACC.

Call me crazy, but I still think that things will gel before the end of the season and we’ll close out on a high note – winning at least one tournament game (obviously the ACC tournament since we won’t be making any other tournaments). And, I still think that we’ll beat Carolina this weekend. We’ve eventually got to start making shots.

Also,

by Travelwolf on Feb 11, 2010 8:49 PM EST reply actions  

Call me crazy, but I still think that things will gel before the end of the season and we’ll close out on a high note – winning at least one tournament game (obviously the ACC tournament since we won’t be making any other tournaments). And, I still think that we’ll beat Carolina this weekend. We’ve eventually got to start making shots.

I hope you’re right, and you’re not crazy to think it’s possible. I’ve been thinking the same thing for about the last three games, but it hasn’t happened and I’m just about out of positive vibes.

by Akula Wolf on Feb 11, 2010 10:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't see any chance

of Tracy leaving early for the NBA. At his size, he would need a lot more of a face up game to make it in the NBA. As long as his grades are in order, I have no doubts about a senior year for the macrowave (thank goodness!).

by PACKHOOLIGAN on Feb 12, 2010 8:21 AM EST reply actions  

Agree he's not ready

Tracy, for all the face-melting pointslosions he provides in college, is pretty slow and doesn’t have the best footwork. Add to that his suspect defensive fundamentals, and you have someone who’s just not going to be playing in the NBA, at least not next year.

Thank goodness.

Again – while I’m no “WTNY” guy, a lineup of Brown, Harrow, Wood, Howell, and Smith would be awfully damn talented…

by wolfonthehill on Feb 12, 2010 9:53 AM EST up reply actions  

How appropriate

At the top of your page, there’s a K-Y ad running… we could most certainly use some of that right about now…

by wolfonthehill on Feb 12, 2010 10:25 AM EST reply actions  

Breaking news

UNC’s Ed Davis has a broken wrist and will be out for the State game (and maybe the rest of the season)

http://www.wralsportsfan.com/unc/story/7020143/

by PACKHOOLIGAN on Feb 12, 2010 11:23 AM EST reply actions  

It's just going to allow

Henson or the other Wear brother to have a career game.

by PACKHOOLIGAN on Feb 12, 2010 1:26 PM EST up reply actions  

The good part is that...

… I’m out to dinner @ The Mint, then at the Bill Maher show in Raleigh Saturday night… so I’ll be again spared from witnessing the carnage… that makes 3 straight misses for me… starting to feel like I’m responsible for the LOSSES…

by wolfonthehill on Feb 12, 2010 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah - this is a "once-a-year" kind of thing...

… and from what I understand, the place is aptly-named… it describes what a meal costs there… so I can’t afford to eat again til April, and my kids can only go to 3-1/2 years of college now… they better go to unc-ch… they can get thru undergrad AND grad school in that time…

by wolfonthehill on Feb 12, 2010 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

been there once

It’s quite good but, yeah, there go the life savings.

by Akula Wolf on Feb 12, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions  

gopack says 4 on ESPN

So it is probably at 9 on FoxSports

by PACKHOOLIGAN on Feb 12, 2010 4:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Was actually SB*Nation...

… that had it listed at 9pm earlier this week… I noticed because it showed us with three straight 9pm games, which looked awfully odd. Dammit – it would’ve been better to just get out of the show & have it be overwith…

by wolfonthehill on Feb 12, 2010 7:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I really thought

that once Lowe’s teams started taking care of the ball, the offense would really take off. I guess since State still doesn’t have any guys that can really create their own offense from the perimeter, reliable jump shooting is needed. I still find it amazing that Tracy can put up the numbers he does when he is really the only guy teams worry about stopping.

by PACKHOOLIGAN on Feb 12, 2010 11:34 AM EST reply actions  

Yeah, just imagine if he had another guy in the front court to deflect some attention…or a guy along the perimeter teams had to respect on a consistent basis.

by Akula Wolf on Feb 12, 2010 2:59 PM EST up reply actions  

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