Previewing Miami

2009 Scouting Report / 2009 Game Plan / 2010 Scouting Report / 2010 Game Plan
2010 Stats
2010 Roster
2010 Schedule

 

Miami Offense 08-09
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 49.3 158
Turnover Rate 19.4 108
Off Reb Rate 38.3 24
FTA/FGA 38.2 124
Miami Offense 09-10
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 53.3 31
Turnover Rate 22.0 262
Off Reb Rate 36.4 51
FTA/FGA 37.9 164

 

 

 

 

 

 

At this point in Frank Haith's coaching career, there are several things you can count on from his teams year after year.  They're generally guard-oriented and more three-happy than anybody else in the ACC, they're disorganized but nonetheless effective at the offensive end, and their defense is, to put it kindly, indifferent.

Miami looked very good while beating up on a soft non-conference slate (11 opponents ranked below 200 in the Pomeroy Ratings) and I think the numbers in the table above make them appear more potent than they are.  Fortunately, conference play tends to reveal a team's true character.  Miami continues to hit a good percentage of its twos in league play, but its three-point shooting and offensive rebounding have declined significantly.

 

The Five Guys Who Play The Most
(I'm not confident enough to call this the starting lineup considering 10 different guys have started multiple conference games.)

Malcolm Grant (6-1, 191) -- A very good shooter outside the arc but a brick machine inside of it.  Solid assist and turnover rates.

James Dews (6-4, 213) -- In picking up a lot of the slack left behind by Jack McClinton, Dews has moved into a primary role for the first time in his career.  He responded well early on, posting career-high two- and three-point percentages.  Conference play, however, has made it clear that he's been stretched beyond his abilities.  The bulk of his value is tied to his accuracy from the field, which has disappeared.

Durand Scott (6-3, 195) -- The freshman hasn't shown much range to this point and at any rate prefers to penetrate for scores.  That probably hurts his turnover rate but does allow him to get to the free throw line fairly often.

Adrian Thomas (6-7, 229) -- Sixty-one of his 70 field goal attempts in conference play have come from three.

Dwayne Collins (6-8, 241) -- I'm not sure anyone in the ACC epitomizes the term "power forward" more than Collins, whose success is the result of brute strength overcoming a lack of refinement.  How else to explain his 60% shooting, an outstanding figure that comes despite any discernible range or touch?  He makes a living by muscling in close for a shot and by cleaning up one of his teammate's misses.  His limitations leave him appearing underutilized on paper, and I think Miami does forget about him from time to time, but his skills just aren't varied enough to allow for a larger role.  So my call to "Free Dwayne Collins" last season was a bit misguided.  On the plus side, he is one of the country's premier offensive rebounders, gets to the line a ton, and blocks his share of shots.

The Rest

Garrius Adams (6-6, 193), DeQuan Jones (6-6, 219), Julian Gamble (6-9, 255), Reggie Johnson (6-10, 295), Cyrus McGowan (6-9, 237).

 

Miami Defense 08-09
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 46.2 44
Turnover Rate 18.6 280
Off Reb Rate 31.9 129
FTA/FGA 31.0 53
Miami Defense 09-10
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 46.1 62
Turnover Rate 20.3 193
Off Reb Rate 30.7 82
FTA/FGA 35.2 123

 

 

 

 

 

 

We've seen some abysmal Miami defenses over the years, and this D, which is the ACC's worst by a wide margin, is no exception.  Allowing opponents to score nearly 1.1 points per trip in this year's ACC is impressive when you think about it. Their interior defense isn't bad, but they're getting killed by lax perimeter defense, they foul a lot, and they rarely force turnovers.

Barring a bunch of boneheaded mistakes, NC State should get plenty of effective possessions, and there will be opportunities along the perimeter. 

The Pomeroy Predictor likes Miami by seven.

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