Fiddling With Plus/Minus

StatSheet recently added +/- numbers for every game where substitution data is available.  Below are totals for each Wolfpack player, including every game to date.  I don't have the exact number of possessions each player has spent on and off the court, but I am able to estimate those numbers based on minutes played and the pace of each game.

+/- On OE On DE Off OE Off DE
Macrowave 193 109.7 97.2 90.5 100.9
Wood 133 106.2 95.8 102 104.4
Mays 105 109.8 96.5 100.2 99.7
Horner 53 104.3 96.5 106.7 103
CJ Williams 36 108.8 99.7 102.9 100.6
Gonzalez 25 104.5 97.4 106.2 99.1
Degand -109 108.6 108.3 102.8 91.2
Vandenberg -119 88.5 89.7 108.2 99.6
Howell -123 107 108.1 104.4 94.1
Painter -133 94.3 99.2 106.7 97.9
J. Davis -135 100.4 103.1 106.8 96.3


+/- = Net plus/minus. On-court +/- minus off-court +/-.
On OE/DE = Team's offensive and defensive efficiency when player is on the floor.
Off OE/DE = Team's offensive and defensive efficiency when player is on the bench.

No surprise to find the Macrowave leading the way, or that the offense is considerably less effective when he is on the bench.  More baffling is how good Julius Mays looks based on the table, and more specifically how good State's offense has been with him on the floor.  His in-conference numbers are terrible and yet the offense has been money.  Weird.  During a recent eight-game stretch (Holy Cross on 1/6 thru NCCU on 1/30), NC State averaged at least 1.1 points per trip while he was on the court.  In six of those eight games, the Pack averaged better than 1.2 points per possession.  He's got some sort of intangible voodoo action going on.  It's certainly not his meager contributions making the offense go when he's out there.

Lots of caveats here, as always: small samples in a number of cases, varying degrees of difficulty depending on when and where a player sees action, who they're on the court with, etc.  Once StatSheet gets around to adding player pairs, this stuff should prove more useful.

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