Previewing South Florida

2009 Scouting Report / 2009 Game Plan / 2010 Scouting Report / 2010 Game Plan
2010 Stats (pdf)
2010 Roster
2010 Schedule

(Common opponents: 66-49 win vs. UVA, lost @ Marquette 63-52.)

If Stan Heath's team isn't the biggest surprise among power-conference schools this season, it's close.  Thanks largely to an atrocious offense, the Bulls were 4-14 in Big East play a year ago.  They improved all the way to .500 in 2010, earned nice wins over Pittsburgh and Georgetown, and had themselves in the NCAA tournament discussion for a time. 

Last year's USF team couldn't hit anything anywhere: 321st in 3FG%, 280th in 2FG%, 341st in FT%.  They're no better from outside now than they were then, but they've made significant strides in the other two areas, and they're taking advantage of their improved FT shooting by getting to the line quite a bit more often.

They're led by a trio of experienced guards, most notably Dominique Jones, who is as involved in his team's offense as Greivis Vasquez or Malcolm Delaney are in theirs, and every bit as efficient.  The problem for USF is that those three guys don't shoot well from outside.  Jones is by far the most frequent outside shooter and also the only one shooting above 30%.  As a team, they've hit just 28.4% of their threes this season.  They hit just 24.9% in Big East play.

But at least they don't fire up a lot of threes; the guards prefer to do most of their work closer to the basket.  Jones in particular will be very aggressive in taking the ball to the rim (dig that free throw rate).  Ideally, NC State will be able to force the Bulls into taking more jump shots than they like.  It's not going to be easy.  These guys understand where their bread is buttered (all three guards have hit 52+% of their twos), and I'm guessing they'll have an edge in quickness.

Starters:

Dominique Jones (6-4, 205) -- Hit more than half of his twos in Big East play, which is pretty good work by a 6-4 guard, not to mention a 6-4 guard that takes as many shots as he does.  He also benefited by increasing both his free throw rate and his free throw percentage.

Chris Howard (6-3, 200) -- Howard did not have so much success finishing in the paint against Big East teams, but he's not a large chunk of the offense, and he does an excellent job of getting to the line.

Mike Mercer (6-5, 195) --Mercer is the only starter aside from Jones taking more than 20% of the shots when he is on the floor.  He probably should cut threes out of his game entirely.

Toarlyn Fitzpatrick (6-8, 230) --Doesn't shoot often, which is good since he's shooting sub-40% in the paint.  Good shot blocker, but he turns the ball over too often and needs to be stronger on the defensive glass.

Jarrid Famous (6-11, 240) -- Excellent offensive rebounder, reasonably efficient low-post scorer.  Like Fitzpatrick, his defensive rebounding isn't where it needs to be, he's a bit turnover prone, and he's a liability at the free throw line.

Bench:

Anthony Crater (6-1, 170), Augustus Gilchrist (6-10, 245).  Crater shouldn't be much of a factor; Gilchrist was hurt and missed a bunch of games in the middle of the season, but now that he's back, he'll likely get a lot of minutes.  Gilchrist is a decent if occasional outside shooter, and he's improved his efficiency inside this season.

South Florida's defense offers a respite after a tough weekend against a few very good defenses.  They couldn't turn anybody over in Big East play, their interior D was mediocre at best, and their defensive rebounding left a lot to be desired.

Pomeroy Predictor likes USF by two.  They've been off since last Wednesday, while we finished up on Saturday.  I'm worried that will be a significant edge in their favor.