Previewing Boston College

2009 Scouting Report / 2009 Game Plan2010 Scouting Reportt / 2010 Game Plan
2010 Stats (pdf)
2010 Roster
2010 Schedule

 

Boston College Offense 08-09
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 49.7 145
Turnover Rate 19.3 102
Off Reb Rate 40.6 7
FTA/FGA 36.6 170
Boston College Offense 09-10
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 49.3 149
Turnover Rate 19.9 134
Off Reb Rate 38.9 18
FTA/FGA 31.4 313

 

 

 

 

 

 

I thought Boston College would be okay without Tyrese Rice; Joe Trapani and Rakim Sanders quietly put together very good high-workload seasons in conference play a year ago.  As the Pomeroy Ratings would have it, the Eagles have been okay--they're rated higher than the team that earned a 7-seed in the 2009 NCAA tournament. 

Conference play paints a slightly different picture.  They're actually not off by much--the '09 Eagles finished the year with a record better than their efficiency margin suggested it should've been--but a few percentage points here and there have cost them.  Their 2FG and 3FG accuracy is down about two percent, as is their offensive rebounding percentage.  Similarly, their efficiency margin is down about two points.

It's those offensive numbers that are primarily responsible for BC's diminished returns, and that's what I can't figure out about them.  Sanders has had a terrible year while still taking a bunch of shots, but Trapani has been fine, and Reggie Jackson is having a breakout year.  Perhaps the fault lies with Al Skinner for not getting Jackson into the starting lineup sooner.  Biko Paris, the incumbent point guard, had been killing them with ineffectiveness.  Whatever the case, the whole appears to be a lot less than the sum of the parts.

Now that Jackson is in the starting lineup, Boston College has won three of four, which could be a sign that they're turning it around.  They scored well over a point per trip in each of those wins. If you're looking for an ACC tournament sleeper, the Jackson-led Eagles are it.

Starters:

Reggie Jackson (6-3, 200) -- I doubt there is anyone flying further under the radar in the ACC than Jackson.  I get it: 12.9 PPG in conference play, what's the big deal?  But Jackson has made the leap, upping his workload from 19.5% to 26.7% while also improving his offensive rating.  That is the sign of a very good player.

Rakim Sanders (6-5, 228) -- ORtg/%Shots in ACC play the last three years: 83.5/25.1, 114.1/25.8, 85.6/27.4.  Make up your mind, Rakim.

Corey Raji (6-6, 218) -- Hitting 53% of his twos in league play, enjoying a lot of trips to the line.  A force on the offensive glass, takes good care of the ball.

Joe Trapani (6-8, 228) -- Timpani roll!

Josh Southern (6-10, 248) -- Rarely shoots, and with good reason.  Still a terrible defensive rebounder.

Bench:

Biko Paris (6-1, 200), Tyler Roche (6-7, 218),  Dallas Elmore (6-5, 210), Cortney Dunn (6-8, 242).  The aforementioned Paris is shooting 42.8% while turning the ball over 45.4% in conference play.  That's rather not good.  Dunn, who takes a mere 7.2% of his team's shots while he's on the floor, is basically a Soroye shoe-in at this point.  Roche has blown up for 30+ points twice this season and been in double figures on just two other occasions.   He's an efficient but, uh, spotty contributor.

Boston College Defense 08-09
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 47.4 92
Turnover Rate 18.3 295
Off Reb Rate 37.0 311
FTA/FGA 34.7 135
Boston College Defense 09-10
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 47.5 109
Turnover Rate 18.2 298
Off Reb Rate 33.0 196
FTA/FGA 30.4 39

 

 

 

 

 

 


Their defensive rebounding has improved but remains not good, they don't force turnovers, and their interior defense is by far the ACC's worst.  A big day for the Macrowave is a distinct possibility.

Pomeroy Predictor likes State by one.  If this is truly an improved Boston College team, they'll have no trouble exceeding those expectations.

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