Never Tell Me The Odds!

Here's how the guys at Football Outsiders see it:

Coastal

1.) Va Tech -- 11-1 (7-1)
2.) Miami -- 8-4 (5-3)
3.) UNC -- 8-4 (5-3)
4.) Georgia Tech -- 8-4 (5-3)
5.) Virginia -- 5-7 (2-6)
6.) Duke -- 3-9 (1-7)

Atlantic

1.) Clemson -- 9-3 (6-2)
2.) Boston College -- 9-3 (5-3)
3.) Florida State -- 6-6 (5-3)
4.) Wake Forest -- 6-6 (3-5)
5.) NC State -- 4-8 (2-6)
6.) Maryland -- 5-7 (2-6)

On one side there's FO and Phil Steele predicting very bad things, and on the other Lindy's, TSN, and Athlon predicting mid-division finishes.  I'd feel a whole lot better if those sides were reversed.

Football Outsiders, which rates State's offense 6th in the ACC and its defense 11th, gives us a mere 15% chance of winning more than five games.  It's not surprising to find they think five wins is our ceiling (I'm thinking 5-7 (2-6), myself), but I really didn't need to see a number attached to it.  For some reason the old mental rundown is much less terrifying even though it brings me to pretty much the same conclusion.

One other note: State ranked 117th in FO's Field Position Advantage metric last season.  Brutal.  I wonder how that translates in terms of expected points--a two, three point disadvantage per game?  Worse?