Previewing St. Bonaventure

St. Bonaventure @ StatSheet
2011 Stats (pdf) / 2012 Stats
2012 Roster
2012 Schedule

Bonnies Offense 10-11
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 50.8 86
Turnover Rate 22.0 273
Off Reb Rate 34.0 107
FTA/FGA 43.8 41
Bonnies Offense 11-12
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 50.7 105
Turnover Rate 23.8 283
Off Reb Rate 36.0 74
FTA/FGA 37.9 145

You can see their shooting percentages for 2011 and 2012 above; in 2010, they shot 50.7%. I don't know what that means, other than that they've become pretty good at shooting pretty good, but if it goes on any longer it should be eligible for tradition status. Two-point field goal percentages, 2010-12: 50.6, 50.0, 50.5. Three-point percentages: 34.1, 35.0, 34.0. Head coach Mark Schmidt knows exactly what is going to happen every year. Mark Schmidt does not recruit, he merely takes the middle of the road to the annual Everyday Garden-Variety Fair and picks up what he needs.

Possible Starters:

Charlon Kloof (6-3, 195) --Inspector Kloof, as I've just now taken to calling him for some reason, is shooting the ball well in extremely limited opportunities; as more of a pass-first guy, he's taken 27 shots in 193 minutes. But if you leave him open...well, who knows, he's only taken 27 shots in his college career.

Matthew Wright (6-4, 200) -- Wright is primarily a three-point shooter, though he isn't completely hopeless when he steps inside the arc for the occasional two. He's a 36.2% three-point shooter so far this season.

Demetrius Conger (6-6, 205) --Judging by his offensive rebounding and free throw rates, Conger's a pretty quick dude. And he is insanely turnover prone. There's a special place in my heart for these types of guys. The human incendiary device--oh he'll get in the lane, and there will be an explosion, but which side survives? Who knows! This time he's making a nice move to the basket for a layup, next time he's hitting himself in the face with a ball he dribbled off his own shoe.

Da'Quan Cook (6-8, 235) -- Decent rebounder, but given that he is a career 44.5% shooter inside the arc and turns the ball over a lot, he probably shouldn't be allowed to shoot nearly as often as he does.

Andrew Nicholson (6-9, 240) -- Nicholson is the team's focal point at the offensive end and its leading scorer. He's been a high usage guy from day one and took over 31% of the Bonnies' shots while he was on the floor last season. Despite the heavy burden, he's been an effective scorer in the paint, though his accuracy is down this season (but a still-solid 52.3%). He has tried to expand his shooting range over the last two seasons with little success. He rebounds well at both ends, blocks a lot of shots, and opponents do not want to put him on the line.

Bench:

Eric Mosley (5-10, 170), Jordan Gathers (6-3, 200), Youssou Ndoye (6-11, 235), Chris Johnson (6-5, 205). Mosley has been an effective option for the Bonnies this season and could start the game, but whenever he comes in, he'll be a worry for State's perimeter defense. Nobody on this team is shooting better from outside than Mosley, and that's where the majority of his shot attempts come from. Fortunately he's not very big, which perhaps allows NC State's lackluster perimeter defense to prevent some shots they otherwise wouldn't.

St. Bonaventure lost Michael Davenport--one of seven guys averaging double digit minutes--to a season-ending injury in their last game, so the rotation is due for a shuffle. Gathers and Ndoye have played in eight of nine games but played sparingly. Johnson may be the most likely candidate to fill the gap left by Davenport since he's about the same size and with 26 shots in 56 minutes, he is not afraid to shoot the ball.

Bonnies Defense 10-11
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 48.2 123
Turnover Rate 17.1 318
Off Reb Rate 31.7 146
FTA/FGA 33.9 90
Bonnies Defense 11-12
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 46.9 122
Turnover Rate 21.9 130
Off Reb Rate 30.4 94
FTA/FGA 34.2 131

Schmidt has some really short teams toward the end of his tenure at this previous stop (Bobby Morris), and they forced a lot of three-point attempts most likely by playing plenty of zone. Size isn't nearly the issue for St. Bonaventure that is was for Robert Morris in those days, but the Bonnies' opponents are shooting the three about 34% of the time this year. So maybe there's more zone on the horizon. Their solid defensive rebounding percentage suggests they're primarily a man-defense team, though.

Their turnover rate at this end may be more a function of the schedule than true talent, as it's considerably higher than the numbers they posted in the previous three seasons under Schmidt. But we'll see.

The Pomeroy Predictor says you can flip a coin on this one.

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