Luke Winn's latest college hoops power rankings includes an item that may interest you. (Lots of other good stuff in there too.)
The following chart looks at the past 10 mid-major coaches to jump to a new job directly after reaching the Sweet 16; you’ll see that three of the first four (Steve Alford, Dan Monson and Stan Heath) flopped, and only four of the 10 have reached the Sweet 16 with their new team (Bill Self, Trent Johnson, Bruce Pearl and Sean Miller):