The Mark Gottfried Track Record: Overview
by Akula Wolf on Apr 29, 2011 3:10 PM EDT
Email
PrintI took a general look at Mark Gottfried's overall accomplishments in his savior profile, so I'm going to start digging a little deeper, beginning with this post on his Alabama teams' performance in SEC play. In future installments I'll break down the components of his offenses and defenses and examine more specifically what did or did not work.
Offense And Defense In The SEC
Below I have charted Alabama's year-to-year offensive and defensive efficiency in SEC games only, with a baseline league average included for context. (Click the image to enlarge it.) I threw out the 2009 season since Gottfried quit after the fifth league game.
[Blue dots above the yellow line = above-average offense.
Red dots below the yellow line = above-average defense.]
Here are the numbers from the chart:
| Bama OFF_EFF | Bama DEF_EFF | SEC AVG | |
| 1999 | 94.1 | 105.4 | 100.3 |
| 2000 | 99.1 | 107.1 | 101.6 |
| 2001 | 101.2 | 105.8 | 102.1 |
| 2002 | 105.4 | 101.2 | 100.5 |
| 2003 | 103.6 | 103.4 | 102.3 |
| 2004 | 105.5 | 103.2 | 101.7 |
| 2005 | 113.6 | 96.4 | 102.6 |
| 2006 | 104.7 | 103.6 | 103.4 |
| 2007 | 103.7 | 112.0 | 105.5 |
| 2008 | 103.4 | 106.0 | 104.5 |
(Bold years: team made the NCAA tournament.)
Gottfried's offenses progressed steadily to the point where they were consistently better than SEC average (though not significantly so, with the exception of 2005). As the chart illustrates, he brought them up to a level in the 103-105 range and pretty much held it steady there for the rest of his tenure. His five NCAA tournament teams had offenses better than league average, and his teams were at least within shouting distance of average in four other seasons.
His defenses improved as well, though the progress was more gradual. He didn't have an above-average defense until his seventh year. As his program fell apart, the offense held steady but the defense declined significantly. Just two years removed from an outstanding defensive performance in 2005, his team was allowing a Miami-esque 1.12 points per trip.
Efficiency Margin, Pythagoras, And Expected Wins
One thing I can do with these offensive and defensive efficiency numbers is estimate the number of conference games Alabama should have won in each season based on Pythagorean expectation. (This is the core of Ken Pomeroy's ratings.) Gottfried's teams exceeded their expected win total six times, most notably in 2002 when the Tide won 12 games while performing like a 9-7 team. That squad earned a #2 seed in the NCAAs, making it one of the most egregiously over-seeded teams in the last ten years. Given their true performance, it's not really that surprising they lost in the second round that year. Most .500ish teams don't last very long. But I digress.
His 2005 team also won 12 games and was much, much better. Their efficiency margin was actually better than that of Kentucky, which won the league with a 14-2 mark. And this Crimson Tide team couldn't even get out of the first round of the NCAAs. Of all of Gottfried's teams, this was the one best positioned for a deep run. Instead it was the less impressive 2004 group that reached the Elite Eight. Go figure.
All told, Alabama was expected to win around 76 league games from 1999 to 2008, and they won 81. That +5 could perhaps hint at some coaching impact, but I'm not comfortable drawing any conclusions there.
From a performance standpoint, Alabama's five year NCAA tournament streak looks quite a bit like NC State's run over those same five years. Like State, Alabama had one breakout year (2005)--which was far more significant than State's '04 breakout--and had the profile of an 8-8 or 9-7 team the rest of the time.
10 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
i was just starting to feel better
about the hiring of Gottfried, that is, until i read your detailed analysis. now i am back to where i was when he was hired-Sendek’s 2005-2006 team beat his Alabama team in December of 2005 at Alabama eventhough Alabama had only 11 total fouls called on them, mostly when they had to foul at the end of the game in an effort to catch up. State shot a total of 4 foul shots all at the end of the game. If a Sendek team was able to beat his team under such circumstances, what does he have to offer State?
Prior to this article i was thinking that the Gottfriend hire was about as good as State could do absent being able to hire Barnes or Miller, both of which were almost impossible to hire. I was thinking that Gottfriend was better than Smart (still basically unproven) or Marshall (no outstanding success yet). Not so much anymore. :-(
let me add one more thing.
Gottfried appears to have hired an outstanding staff.
Great work!
I’ve never been excited about MG – mainly because even when he had good players, he had only one good run in the tourney. He basically sucks in tournament play. So, thanks for backing me up. I didn’t realize that it was that difficult for us to get a decent coach, so with that in mind, we are probably lucky to have him. Upside is limited, but so is downside. He’s a known quantity. Perhaps a stepping stone to a top-25 club. Ok, maybe I’m being to optimistic…
Gottfried vs. Sendek
I think it’s important to remember that Sendek’s 5 year run came after 5 years of disappointment. Gottfried’s came after 3 years of fairly consistent improvement from when he came over.
The question is really going to be how much he has actually learned in his 2 year hiatus.
by WolfpackSteelersFan on Apr 29, 2011 11:33 PM EDT reply actions
Interesting
Can you post the expected W/L for each year?
It’s notable that the SEC was much tougher during Gottfried’s good run there than it is now. It was typically rated the first or second best conference back then, compared to 5-6 in recent years.
Also interesting that his last full season there was not nearly as bad as the team’s record (5-11) would indicate. It does seem like he got a quick hook at Bama.
The defense wasn’t good, as expected. I wonder what he’ll do differently on that end at NCSU.
expected W-L
NCAAT years in bold.
ExpW-L …. ActualW-L
4-12 … 6-10
5-11 … 6-10
6-10 … 8-8
9-7 … 12-4
8-8 … 7-9
9-7 … 8-8
13-3 … 12-4
8-8 … 10-6
5-11 … 7-9
7-9 … 5-11
Great Analysis / Bad Results
Now I am depressed again … so maybe Archie will be ready in 5 when we dump this mediocre hire?
Hopefully D is what was learned about the most
And bringing in a veteran staff should help. For the level they played at, Lutz’s teams at Charlotte looked to have decent numbers on D in their better years. By no means were they defensively-oriented teams, but not dreadful.
As noted above, Sendek’s five year stretch, had it happened sooner in his tenure, probably would have meant that the seat would not have been nearly as hot in year 10. And it is also the way that it happened, i.e. the soul-crushing losses that kept preventing State from getting that elusive ACC Tournament title or to another Sweet 16. I think Gottfried has a better chance of breaking through than Sendek did.
I didn't mean for this to be depressing
It’s not encouraging in that it doesn’t offer evidence of success beyond what we had with Herb, but I don’t find it particularly discouraging either.
The way I’m looking at it, I’ll be very happy for a while to get back to the 8-8 or 9-7 tier where we’re getting to the NCAAs on a regular basis. I’ll wait until we get back there before I start worrying about, say, whether or not Gottfried has improved as a coach in order to get to the next level.
I’m not sure it’s fair to say he was a bad tournament coach, either. What I was trying to get at with this:
Given their true performance, it’s not really that surprising they lost in the second round that year. Most .500ish teams don’t last very long.
…was that four of his five teams were expected to lose in the first weekend, and four of his five teams did that. That one team expected to lose early went deep and one team expected to go deep lost early…that’s a push, IMO.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Backing The Pack
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
