Digging Deeper Into Pomeroy & the ACC

If there is anything we should have learned from Steven by now, it is that RPI is meaningless in actually evaluating basketball teams, and the Pomeroy ratings are the true measure of man. Is it true the ACC is really down this year? As we wind down the non-conference portion of the schedule, here's where we stand:

  1. North Carolina (5)
  2. Duke (8)
  3. Virginia (29)
  4. Virginia Tech (35)
  5. Florida State (39)
  6. Miami (57)
  7. NC State (62)
  8. Clemson (97)
  9. Georgia Tech (103)
  10. Maryland (160)
  11. Wake Forest (164)
  12. Boston College (255)

How does this compare? Well last year, which if you'll recall was not historically strong, the ACC finished with six teams in the top 36, and only Wake was worse than 94th. (They were, um, quite a bit worse. Keep scrolling down - you're not there yet.) In 2010, all 12 teams finished in the top 76, and five were 27th or better. In 2009, Virginia was worst at 104th, ten teams were in the top 80, six in the top 40, and four in the top 25. In 2008, NC State was the worst team in the conference at 96th (this was the year we scored 13 in the first half at Chapel Hill.) Eight teams were in the top 56. In 2007, all 12 teams were 87th or better, and the conference had nine of the top 45 and four of the top 17.

In case that was too many numbers in one paragraph: the second worst-ranked ACC team of the past five seasons, Virginia in 2009, is the rough equivalent of this year's Clemson and Georgia Tech teams. Who, if you noticed, are waaayy ahead of the bottom three right now. The worst team of the Sidney Lowe error ranks ahead of five 2012 ACC teams. So this isn't outhouse-type stinky. This is a Calcutta-slum dysentary outbreak style shit-storm.

  • Rating the schedules of each team: Duke (12), UNC (47), NC State (72), Miami (77), Florida St. (107), VaTech (169), Wake (228), BC (235), GaTech (256), Clemson (307), Maryland (309), UVa (332). 'Cus if you make it look like a soft, creamy cupcake, maybe people won't notice it's shit until they bite into it. (And good for you, BC! The only team whose SOS beats its rating.)
  • The ACC has three of the eight luckiest teams in the nation - Duke (8th), Wake (5th), and Maryland as the nation's very luckiest team. State is slightly better than average (92nd) in this category, which compares your actual record to your predicted record based on offensive and defensive rating. Clemson and Georgia Tech are in the bottom 20 in this category, which explains how they have 7-6 records despite overall ratings much higher than Maryland and Wake.
  • If you're looking for a game that will be fun, check out Wake at home on Feb. 4. They are top 50 in nation in adjusted tempo, 213th in adjusted defense. Pointspolsion! Also possibly Miami, which doesn't bring the tempo, but does match us with a top 30 offense and a not-top-100 defense. Not fun: Florida State (#5 defense, #175 offense), Clemson, and Georgia Tech.
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