Previewing The Miami Hurricanes

Miami @ StatSheet
2012 Stats (pdf)
2012 Roster
2012 Schedule

Miami Offense 10-11
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 51.8 54
Turnover Rate 20.8 218
Off Reb Rate 36.0 48
FTA/FGA 38.9 132
Miami Offense 11-12
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 51.4 91
Turnover Rate 18.7 62
Off Reb Rate 30.1 249
FTA/FGA 39.4 97

Frank Haith never had any trouble establishing solid guard-oriented offenses at Miami, and given that Jim Larranaga inherited Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott, it's not very surprising to see this offense pretty much right were it was a year ago. Right where they were throughout Haith's tenure, really--he had six top 50 offenses in seven seasons and that's where this offense ranks.

And there is some potential for them to get better since Grant, Scott, and Johnson are not shooting as effectively as they have in the past. Certainly if their fortunes are to change in conference play, they're going to have to step up the shooting efficiency, since they're also playing the same sort of mediocre defense they did under Haith.

Starters

Malcolm Grant (6-1, 188) -- Grant leads the team with 13.4 PPG, but his workload is considerably higher than it's ever been before and it's really hurting his shooting percentages. He's never been an accurate scorer inside the arc, and that's true this year as well--his 2FG% is south of 40%. But he has been fantastic from outside, never finishing a season with a three-point percentage under 41.2. This year his 3FG% is down to 35.4, and while that's a solid success rate, when added to his interior troubles and limited skillset, it means he has a more inconsistent impact. But obviously, given his track record, he is a priority along the perimeter.

Durand Scott (6-5, 202) -- Remember a couple of years ago when Scott and Reggie Johnson were going to be the backbone to a contender in the ACC? It was a fair bet at the time but never materialized because Haith couldn't build a defense, Scott did not progress into the all-league difference maker people thought he could be, and Johnson got himself hurt prior to the 2011-12 season. I don't mean to paint Scott as some sort of offensive liability--he's far from that--it's just that he's essentially the same solid, efficient, above average contributor he was as a freshman. He's still good at getting to the free throw line, where he is very effective. And his outside shot, which comes and goes, is worrisome.

Trey McKinney-Jones (6-5, 216) -- TMJ is a transfer from Missouri-Kansas City in his first year of eligibility with the Canes. A little turnover-prone, but he's never hit less than 50% of his twos and he is a decent outside shooter as well. Not a bad defensive rebounder, either. Not a major factor in the offense, but a pretty good role player.

Kenny Kadji (6-11, 251) -- Kadji spent a year on Florida's bench before seeking more playing time elsewhere, and so far so good for both Kadji and the Hurricanes. He's hit 57% of his twos and he's also 10-21 from beyond the arc.

Reggie Johnson (6-10, 284) -- Johnson is still acclimating himself in his return from injury, and while his numbers are comparable to those of past seasons, he's a bit off in some critical areas. After hitting nearly 60% of his twos last season, he's down at 50% this year; his offensive and defensive rebounding percentages are down; his turnover rate is up a smidge. The injury hasn't hurt his ability to get to the line and convert free throws, and continues to block his share of shots.

Bench

DeQuan Jones (6-8, 221), Eric Swoope (6-6, 230), Shane Larkin (5-11, 160), Rion Brown (6-6, 194). Larkin has done a good job distributing the ball, contributing from beyond the arc, and generating turnovers. He also commits a lot of turnovers himself, and as you might guess of someone his size, he has trouble scoring inside the arc. He is the pick to click.

Jones, who served a long suspension for Nevin Shapiro-related reasons, is apparently on a mission to make up for all of the shot attempts he missed during the team's first 10 games. He's a turnover-prone, one-dimensional scoring threat.

Miami Defense 10-11
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 47.8 108
Turnover Rate 18.2 279
Off Reb Rate 31.6 143
FTA/FGA 37.8 171
Miami Defense 11-12
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 48.2 148
Turnover Rate 19.2 250
Off Reb Rate 32.7 183
FTA/FGA 31.0 69

No sign of a Larranaga effect at this end yet, but if there is one I'm not sure what it would look like, anyway. There was no persistent pattern to Larranaga's George Mason defenses, though they did tend to be good at avoiding fouls.

The Pomeroy Predictor likes Miami by three.

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