That Looked Familiar: UNC 74, NC State 55

by Akula Wolf on Jan 27, 2012 12:18 AM EST

Four Factors	NCSU	UNC
eFG%	44.7	52.3
Turnover Rate	23.9	21.1
Off Reb Rate	15.4	42.9
FT Rate	15.8	20.3

	Pts	Poss	OFF_EFF	DEF_EFF
NCSU	55	71.2	77.2	103.9
UNC	74	71.2	103.9	77.2

Box Score

It's disappointing that the game tonight was so similar to the games in Chapel Hill under Sidney Lowe, but it's easier to stomach because I don't doubt our effort they way I would have in the past. So that's progress. State had no answer for Ty Zeller or John Henson down low, and those two affected the game in the fashion necessary to make this Tar Heels team good enough to win a national title. I'm sure I wasn't alone in hoping that that those first two buckets--a surprisingly deft move by Richard Howell and a banked-in three by Lorenzo Brown--were omens.

For a brief period it seemed like it could be one of those bizarre performances that would lead to a surprising win, but of course it didn't take long for the Heels to help reality set in. They destroyed State on the glass and limited the Pack to 12-37 shooting inside the arc. That's a brilliant all-around interior defensive effort, and far more than we could hope to overcome.

At least nobody got shot by a BB gun.

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Pissed that it happened but kinda glad it did only if the team responds positively. Sure we hoped we had started to close the gap but UNC zipped us up and sent us home. Every game is winnable and loses happen. Win the games you’re supposed to. Beat Virginia. There is still a lot of work to do. Go Pack!

by Rvdbbw on Jan 27, 2012 5:44 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions

Incredibly disappointing

I expected a 20-point loss… so not surprised by the score… but surprised by:

Calvin reverting to 2011 Calvin… selfish, and low-basketball-IQ plays across the board… and Gott never benched him for it. Highly disconcerting.
We actually got a LOT of bounces last night… four banked 3’s by my count (including the buzzer-beater), meaning that over 20% of our points came off of bad shots that went in anyway… and we still lost by 20. So we really should’ve taken a 30-point drubbing.
Complete inability to execute anything at the offensive end. The next high screen we set for Wood at the arc will be the first… repeated lazy passes to the top of the key that resulted in highly predictable turnovers… zero crisp movement on offense, which made uncch’s defensive task quite pedestrian… and seriously, I would be that we had between 8 and 12 airballs if you count anything that doesn’t hit the rim.

Maybe just like uncch’s performance @ FSU and we just write it off as “one of those games”? Problem is, that makes two of them for us in 6 games… at that pace, we’ll have 5 head-scratching WTF losses, plus we have to play at least 3 more against teams that should beat us. 8 more losses ain’t gonna cut it.

by wolfonthehill on Jan 27, 2012 5:52 AM EST reply actions

A little harsh at the end

This does not fall at all into “head-scratching WTF loss.” If we play better, and maintain the insane lucky-bounce shooting, we lose by six or ten. If you count three more against “teams that should be us” we only have seven others left, and our current rate against “others” suggests that 1.4 of those would be WTF losses. Which puts us at 9.6-6.4 at the end of the season. Right about where people have been figuring, though not quite good enough – which is also right about where people have been figuring.
You made exactly the same mistake most of my students did in probability yesterday, double-counting things that qualify as both A and B.

by acc_10k on Jan 27, 2012 6:11 AM EST up reply actions

Calvin

I can’t really blame him. He and Howell were really getting jobbed early on. I was getting frustrated just watching it.

by Th3T1ck on Jan 27, 2012 8:33 AM EST up reply actions

But you're not on scholarship at an ACC school

You’re a fan & allowed to be frustrated. Calvin has to run the offense – period… and can’t go all free-form on his own & try to make up an 18-point deficit with a single ill-advised drive into traffic.

Put it this way… if Calvin played for uncch or dook… and if he pulled that shit… he’d sit… period. Just asking for some coaching and teaching. You can’t let frustration take you & your team out of the game.

by wolfonthehill on Jan 27, 2012 9:42 AM EST up reply actions

I would argue

that Calvin got the benefit of the doubt early in the game. His post moves typically ended with him tripping over his own feet, but would draw a foul call on a unc player.

by PACKHOOLIGAN on Jan 27, 2012 9:55 AM EST up reply actions

Disappointed but

Let’s be honest, unless UNC had a repeat performance from last week at FSU we were going to have to shoot 55% from the field and everyone was going to have to be on. Carolina is good, and they rarely play bad in back to back games. My biggest concern is the team not losing to them twice by losing to UVA this weekend. That is a very winnable game and it is going to be a test of how much those guys have changed since Club Lowe closed down.

by leewolf on Jan 27, 2012 7:02 AM EST via mobile reply actions

Not surprised

I’m disappointed it wasn’t closer, but I’m not too surprised. Teams have to have great outside shooting or bigs that can disrupt or be competitive against Zeller and Henson. We didn’t last night, and I didn’t really expect us to.

I think we’ve forgotten that, mostly, this team is still the same talent (minus Strickland) that people picked to win the Natty going away. The reason they fell off the radar was because of sloppy, uninspired play. Now with Strickland’s injury and the beatdown @ FSU, I think they’ve turned a corner mentally. Going out on a limb to say that they won’t lose again until the ACC Tourney. And yes, I hate that.

As leewolf said, we can’t let this loss drag us down against UVA. Go get ’em, Pack!

by packalum08 on Jan 27, 2012 8:03 AM EST reply actions

While our offense seemed incompetent,

I saw plenty defensively to be happy about. Looking at those efficiency numbers, we held them far below their usual output.. We didn’t take advantage of the mistakes and turnovers, though, and if you don’t do that, you’ll never win tough road games.

by wmbuff on Jan 27, 2012 8:15 AM EST reply actions

I expected a double digit loss

but I was disappointed in State’s lack of offensive execution. The players seemed timid and unsure. Even open shots were missed badly most of the time.

by PACKHOOLIGAN on Jan 27, 2012 8:39 AM EST reply actions

My line

on the game was pack +15, so I guess the end result wasn’t that far off. UNC is just far too athletic inside (esp with Howell immediately in foul trouble) but yes the lack of execution was perplexing. We clearly got rattled.

by ginger avenger on Jan 27, 2012 8:50 AM EST up reply actions

You have State and UNC mixed up on the OFF/DEF Efficiency table

by PirateWolf on Jan 27, 2012 10:31 AM EST reply actions

it was beer's fault

Backing The Pack

by Akula Wolf on Jan 27, 2012 2:27 PM EST up reply actions

That felt like it hurt

Jail sucked… I was watching with a UNX fan at the bar, who knew it was in hand after 2 mins into the 2nd half. He left… I drank heavily and hit on old women, Ugh

Lack of composure. UNX whipped us good, boys. But as many air balls and ugly shots we took, you could tell we were rattled. Their length destroyed us. On to the next one, on a very quick turnaround.

by chip24spb on Jan 27, 2012 10:37 AM EST reply actions

That’s what SHEEEEEEEE saaaaaaid …

by PeeDub on Jan 27, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions

if i was not a State fan and loved the team,

i would write that the team played like nervous nellies, gutless wonders and choked; however, since i love the team i will not write that. what i will write is why does Zo Brown melt down against Marshall? with many pundits saying and writing that Zo Brown is the best point guard in the conference, with Brown being faster, taller, a better scorer and almost as good an assist man with regard to Marshall, why does he play so poorly when facing Marshall?

by sbas2 on Jan 27, 2012 10:55 AM EST reply actions

now to write a bit about something in which so few care:

the Wolfpack women! :-)
i am going to Raleigh tonight to watch them play FSU. State and FSU are tied for 6th place, so State has a good chance of winning this one. I also believe that FSU has lost four in a row. Beating FSU tonight and beating a very poor VaTech team Sunday afternoon will put the women at 5 and 4. To be a bubble team at the end of the conference regular season schedule, i feel State, due to wins over South Carolina and Vanderbilt, can be 9 and 7. State has a home again against Wake in the Hoops for Hopes game and a road game against a very poor B.C. team. Win those and State has 7 wins. State also has a home game against UVA, also a winnable game. that would be 8 wins. as such State would have to beat one of UNC on the road, Miami at home, GaTech on the road and Maryland at home. right now i can’t see it, but it could happen.

by sbas2 on Jan 27, 2012 11:02 AM EST reply actions