Of course the Weimar Republic did not have NCAA Super Conferences, nor did Ayn Rand discuss them in "Atlas Shrugged". For revenue purposes, especially Division I football revenue, movement of Universities from one conference to another is occurring at an accelerating pace. The thought is that four Super Conferences made up the SEC, the Big Ten, the Pack Ten and the Big Twelve will control football revenue, and if a university wants a big piece of the pie, a university better join one of these conferences. The ACC and the Big East seem to be in the odd conference out due to the move from the current Bowl Championship Series to an initial four team playoff.
NCAA football generated 2.2 billion dollars in 2010; however, men's NCAA basketball also generated quite a bit of revenue. As a matter of fact the median net revenue generated for each NCAA men's basketball school is 788,000 per year while the median net revenue of each school in NCAA football is a negative 975,000 dollars per year.
In the article entitled "It pays, even in basketball, to be in BCS" by Kristi Dosh, the following chart shows that the majority of conferences receive more revenue from the BCS than from the NCAA's basketball fund.
POST-SEASON MONEY DISTRIBUTIONS
The majority of conferences receive more revenue from the BCS than from the NCAA's Basketball Fund:
|Conference||BCS (millions)||NCAA (millions)|
SOURCE: NCAA, SportsBusiness Daily
The conclusion is that being in a football conference could enable a university to generate more revenue, and in 2010 the top twenty revenue and profit producing NCAA programs were football programs with Texas being number one generating revenue of 93.9 million dollars and a profit of 68.8 million dollars.
WHAT COULD REVERSE THE MOVE TO SUPER CONFERENCES?
The national debt is currently 16.3 trillion dollars(constantly moving upward). At the current rate it will be 22.8 trillion dollars in 2016, the current rate being taken from the US Debt Clock. The debt clock also offers 2016 projections by the CBO, OMB and GOP and compares the four. Total debt for the nation is 58.9 trillion dollars with a projected total debt for 2016 as 73.3 trillion dollars. Current federal revenue for the nation is 2.436 trillion dollars and current federal spending is 3.545 trillion dollars. USDC projections for 2016 are revenue of 4.5 trillion dollars and spending of 3.982 trillion dollars. US unfunded liabilities currently are 121.6 trillion dollars (Medicare; Social Security; Medicaid make up most if not all of these liabilities). USDC states that unfunded liabilities will rise to 148.9 trillion dollars by 2016.
Of interest are quotes felt to be made by Tytler set forth in an article entitled "The Truth About Tytler" by Loren Collins:
A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years.
Great nations rise and fall. The people go from bondage to spiritual truth, to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency, from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependence, from dependence back again to bondage.
If the above is true there will be no continuance of Super Conferences.
According to the US Debt Clock the amount of circulated money has increased from 1.6 trillion dollars in 2008 to 2.663 trillion dollars in 2012. Ben Bernanke ushered QE I, QEII and QEIII. Each of these quantitative easings (i love this cartoon) basically printed money increasing the supply of currency. When the supply of currency is increased does it mean that inflation is due? In an article entitled "History Squared" it was stated that Bank of England Chairman Mervyn King
studied the relationship between the growth in the monetary base and inflation for 116 countries from 1968-1998. He found that the 2-5 year correlation was not impressive; however over periods of 5-10 years '"the correlation becomes almost perfect". Over these longer horizons, the growth of the monetary base seems to be directly associated with the growth of both broad money and inflation. This association has been replicated in many other pieces of research, including this piece published by the Minneapolis Fed in 1995.
During President Reagan's first term of office interest rates skyrocketed. At the end of President Carter's term in office, inflation was rampant and the economy was stagnant giving the rise to the term "stagflation". Mortgage interest rates were 12-15% if one was lucky and car loans had interest rates of over 14%. One way to stop inflation is to raise interest rates. However, when interest rates rose during Reagan's term the national debt did not top 16 trillion dollars. Note what is projected for the interest cost of the national debt in "Interest on National Debt: 'Skyrocketing' cost ahead".
Is it possible for the nation to experience hyper-inflation like that of the Weimar Republic? Of course, and if that happens a collapse of the dollar and the economy will happen.
Maryland left the ACC to join the Big Ten to increase their athletic revenue from 17 million dollars a year to what can be more than 24 million dollars a year. When doing so they increased the distance their teams will have to travel. As the ACC currently stands the total distance from Maryland of all conference schools is approximately 4407 miles with an average of 400 miles. For being in the Big Ten as it currently stands the total distance to all schools is 7005 miles with an average of 584 miles. That is a lot of extra travel miles eating into the additional revenue. Maybe those eight sports cut by Maryland for lack of revenue will not return.
What if State moves to the Big Ten or the Big Twelve? For N.C. State the total distance to all current conference members is approximately 2999 miles and an average of 272 miles. Three schools in the conference are located with 25 miles of State. If State moves to the SEC the total distance to all current members of that conference is approximately 7079 miles for an average of 544 miles. While that is a big change, its not as big as it will be if State moves to the Big Twelve. If State joins the Big Twelve the total distance to all schools currently in the Big Twelve is approximately 9362 miles with an average of 936 miles. Six members of the Big Twelve are located over 1000 miles from State, and eight members are located more than 800 miles from State. Those are long distances.
I have "no dog" in this hunt. Whatever State does I will continue to be a member of the WolfPack club and attend games. However, a collapse of the economy and dollar will end that.
With a collapse of the economy and dollar, revenue most likely will not be there. The future may again be smaller and regional conferences. One could even see a North Carolina conference made up of Division One schools in the State, such schools allowing busing of a team to and from most members in a day.