It's been the case a lot lately, and it was true in Chapel Hill earlier this year--not just the blowout part, I mean. We should have a pretty good idea about the way Tuesday's game is going to go by how the battle of the boards works out early on. They crushed the Pack on the glass in Chapel Hill, which is pretty much how it has gone for the last half decade or so.
Carolina hasn't shot the ball very well in conference play--the Heels are ninth in effective field goal percentage--but they're taken great care of the ball and they're leading the league in offensive rebounding. Those two factors have made their offense very effective despite the shortcomings elsewhere. Kendall Marshall's vision is unparalleled but he's not breaking anyone down; generally they aren't going to draw many fouls (stop laughing!), partially as a result of those limitations; they're bad from beyond the arc and understandably one-dimensional as a result, and their two-point accuracy is only average.
Since State's not going to be forcing many turnovers, the only way they're going to give Carolina's offense pause is by controlling the defensive boards. There's a lot left to the whims of shooting accuracy when there aren't many turnovers in the picture, and if the Heels shoot 60% and don't need their offensive rebounding to roll, so be it. But if they have a typical night from the field and control this game with second chance opportunities, well, that's another door we closed on ourselves.