Previewing The Virginia Tech Hokies

Va Tech @ StatSheet
2012 Stats
2012 Roster
2012 Schedule

Virginia Tech Offense 10-11
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 50.3 106
Turnover Rate 18.5 78
Off Reb Rate 32.3 174
FTA/FGA 40.7 99
Virginia Tech Offense 11-12
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 48.3 199
Turnover Rate 19.1 98
Off Reb Rate 33.3 132
FTA/FGA 33.0 256

If you think NC State has had some hard luck this season, hold on a second and let flabbergasted Seth Greenberg state his case: the Hokies have lost eight conference games by five points or fewer. And none of their four league wins have come by more than two points, so basically it's a miracle that nobody on the coaching staff has died yet.

Virginia Tech doesn't deserved to be lumped in with the bottom three in the ACC, though that's where this team is in terms of wins and losses. The Hokies have been much more competitive than the results suggest, and it's probably a good idea to expect another solid effort from them on Sunday.

In conference play, the Hokies offense is struggling because their two-point accuracy is dead last and they aren't grabbing a lot of those misses. They are taking decent care of the ball, however, and this is the league's best three-point shooting team. We all know what that could mean for this game.

Starters:

Erick Green (6-3, 185) -- Green's low free throw rate is a bit of a mystery to me, because when I watch him, it seems like he has the speed to create a lot of problems off the dribble. Maybe he just settles for too many jump shots. Whatever the case, expect Green to be the focal point of the offense, and he ain't shy about shooting inside or out.

Jarell Eddie (6-7, 218) -- Eddie has very quietly been one of the more improved players in the ACC this season. While his skillset is limiting him to a secondary role, he has improved his three-point and free throw shooting considerably. As a 45.1% three-point shooter, he's one of the top perimeter threats in the league.

Dorenzo Hudson (6-5, 220) -- After what looked like a breakout season in 2010, Hudson's 2011 season was derailed by injury, and this year he hasn't really been able to build on the improvements on display a couple of years ago. He's only an average shooter inside and out.

Dorian Finney-Smith (6-8, 192) -- For Finney-Smith, this year's situation proved ideal; for the Hokies, not so much. At least not in the short-term. The majority of freshmen simply aren't ready to handle major minutes at the I-A level, and he's no exception. The numbers are brutal: 58.6 FT%, 31.7 2FG%, 33.9 3FG%, plus a 22.3% turnover rate. Finney-Smith is one of the highest-rated prospects Greenberg has ever signed and obviously is not without potential, but it may be some time before the experience gained this season pays dividends.

Cadarian Raines (6-9, 238) -- Depending on Victor Davila's status, Raines may not be in the lineup on Sunday. But he hasn't done a bad job in relief, and as a secondary option, he's not a bad scorer in the paint. He's also the team's best offensive rebounder and shot blocker.

Bench:

Robert Brown (6-5, 190), Victor Davila (6-8, 242), Marquis Rankin (6-1, 165), C.J. Barksdale (6-8, 232). Davila's status is uncertain for Sunday--he's got some sort of groin issue--but since there's a chance he plays, he joins the list. Prior to the injury, Davila was having arguably the best season of his VT career: 56.9% two-point shooting with significantly improved free throw shooting. He's turnover prone and just a role player, but certainly holds plenty of value for this thin Hokies team.

The other three are true freshmen. Brown's gotten the most minutes and he's also been the most involved bench player at the offensive end. He'll take plenty of threes, though he's shooting 31.7% from out there.

Virginia Tech Defense 10-11
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 47.4 88
Turnover Rate 21.9 69
Off Reb Rate 30.9 107
FTA/FGA 31.2 47
Virginia Tech Defense 11-12
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 45.8 48
Turnover Rate 19.7 199
Off Reb Rate 34.1 256
FTA/FGA 35.3 156


The Hokies are doing a better job forcing turnovers in conference games, but they have glaring problems elsewhere: they're 12th in defensive rebounding, 12th in 2FG% defense, and 11th in free throw rate.

The Pomeroy Predictor likes Tech by two.

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