FanPost

Science! says we’ll get a bye

Streeter Lecka

I have looked into the future and found some good news! NC State has a very good chance, a better chance than any team not currently in the top-5 in the country, of getting a bye in the first round of the ACC tourney. Below is a chart of the current ACC standings along with each teams average KenPom and BPI rank*:

Team

KP

BPI

RnkAvg*

W

L

Miami

8

9

8.5

10

0

Duke

6

1

3.5

8

2

UVA

19

44

31.5

7

3

UNC

46

50

48

6

4

NCSU

29

17

23

6

5

FSU

115

106

110.5

5

5

Maryland

59

48

53.5

5

6

Clempson

97

92

94.5

4

7

WFU

134

125

129.5

4

7

GT

71

76

73.5

3

7

VT

159

143

151

2

8

BC

120

118

119

2

8

*Both KenPom and the BPI provide rankings based on tempo-free game performance and Strength-of-Schedule. However, they do this in different ways and considering different factors. Taking an average of the two is my way of getting the best of both worlds.

Now here is a chart of each teams remaining schedule along with the spread in the rankings between the teams involved. A (negative) spread means the team is the favorite:

Team

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Miami

(102)

(86)

(23)

(121)

(143)

5

(65)

(86)

Duke

(45)

(50)

(148)

(116)

(28)

(5)

(148)

(45)

UVA

(120)

(17)

23

(42)

28

(88)

(79)

(22)

UNC

45

17

(26)

25

(47)

(63)

(6)

45

NCSU

(128)

(88)

(25)

(96)

(51)

(107)

(88)

FSU

102

(9)

88

(41)

(19)

63

79

88

Maryland

50

(66)

(41)

(20)

(76)

6

22

Clempson

21

86

41

47

(57)

(25)

86

WFU

11

56

121

19

76

107

(22)

GT

(21)

(56)

26

42

20

51

65

(46)

VT

120

128

148

41

143

57

148

22

BC

(11)

9

66

116

96

88

25

46

There are a few clear things that we can take away from this:

  1. NCSU is better than every team it will face before the ACC tournament.
  2. NCSU has the easiest path to an undefeated finish.
  3. There has to be something more productive I could be doing with my time.
  4. NCSU is more likely to be a 3-seed than a 5-seed in the ACC Tourney.

Have a smile on your face? This might not turn it upside down, but it will at least straighten it out a bit. We have 3 away games left. We will very likely be favored in the final FSU game by a point or 2. However, I expect us to be slight dogs at UNC and possibly at GT. I have developed a system over the years that is fairly good at predicting spreads using tempo-free stats. Here are the projected spreads (allowing 4 points for Home-Court):

Opponent

NCSU Line

VT

-10

FSU

-7

@ UNC

2.5

BC

-8

@ GT

Even

Wake

-8.5

@ FSU

Even

So there you have it. We have a shot at a phenomenal finish. Nothing can stop us! Except for all the things that can stop us. But all those things are the only things. Damn those things.

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