I have looked into the future and found some good news! NC State has a very good chance, a better chance than any team not currently in the top-5 in the country, of getting a bye in the first round of the ACC tourney. Below is a chart of the current ACC standings along with each teams average KenPom and BPI rank*:
Team |
KP |
BPI |
RnkAvg* |
W |
L |
Miami |
8 |
9 |
8.5 |
10 |
0 |
Duke |
6 |
1 |
3.5 |
8 |
2 |
UVA |
19 |
44 |
31.5 |
7 |
3 |
UNC |
46 |
50 |
48 |
6 |
4 |
NCSU |
29 |
17 |
23 |
6 |
5 |
FSU |
115 |
106 |
110.5 |
5 |
5 |
Maryland |
59 |
48 |
53.5 |
5 |
6 |
Clempson |
97 |
92 |
94.5 |
4 |
7 |
WFU |
134 |
125 |
129.5 |
4 |
7 |
GT |
71 |
76 |
73.5 |
3 |
7 |
VT |
159 |
143 |
151 |
2 |
8 |
BC |
120 |
118 |
119 |
2 |
8 |
*Both KenPom and the BPI provide rankings based on tempo-free game performance and Strength-of-Schedule. However, they do this in different ways and considering different factors. Taking an average of the two is my way of getting the best of both worlds.
Now here is a chart of each teams remaining schedule along with the spread in the rankings between the teams involved. A (negative) spread means the team is the favorite:
Team |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
Miami |
(102) |
(86) |
(23) |
(121) |
(143) |
5 |
(65) |
(86) |
Duke |
(45) |
(50) |
(148) |
(116) |
(28) |
(5) |
(148) |
(45) |
UVA |
(120) |
(17) |
23 |
(42) |
28 |
(88) |
(79) |
(22) |
UNC |
45 |
17 |
(26) |
25 |
(47) |
(63) |
(6) |
45 |
NCSU |
(128) |
(88) |
(25) |
(96) |
(51) |
(107) |
(88) |
|
FSU |
102 |
(9) |
88 |
(41) |
(19) |
63 |
79 |
88 |
Maryland |
50 |
(66) |
(41) |
(20) |
(76) |
6 |
22 |
|
Clempson |
21 |
86 |
41 |
47 |
(57) |
(25) |
86 |
|
WFU |
11 |
56 |
121 |
19 |
76 |
107 |
(22) |
|
GT |
(21) |
(56) |
26 |
42 |
20 |
51 |
65 |
(46) |
VT |
120 |
128 |
148 |
41 |
143 |
57 |
148 |
22 |
BC |
(11) |
9 |
66 |
116 |
96 |
88 |
25 |
46 |
There are a few clear things that we can take away from this:
- NCSU is better than every team it will face before the ACC tournament.
- NCSU has the easiest path to an undefeated finish.
- There has to be something more productive I could be doing with my time.
- NCSU is more likely to be a 3-seed than a 5-seed in the ACC Tourney.
Have a smile on your face? This might not turn it upside down, but it will at least straighten it out a bit. We have 3 away games left. We will very likely be favored in the final FSU game by a point or 2. However, I expect us to be slight dogs at UNC and possibly at GT. I have developed a system over the years that is fairly good at predicting spreads using tempo-free stats. Here are the projected spreads (allowing 4 points for Home-Court):
Opponent |
NCSU Line |
VT |
-10 |
FSU |
-7 |
@ UNC |
2.5 |
BC |
-8 |
@ GT |
Even |
Wake |
-8.5 |
@ FSU |
Even |
So there you have it. We have a shot at a phenomenal finish. Nothing can stop us! Except for all the things that can stop us. But all those things are the only things. Damn those things.