The difficulties facing not only N.C. State, but every N.C. in-state football program, are well known: lots of schools competing for a finite group of talent. In addition to the four ACC schools, East Carolina and (to a lesser extent) Appalachian State (and now even Charlotte) are trying to lure the lion's share of 40 to 50 three star and above talents to their respective campuses. Even if every N.C. kid stayed in state, there simply isn't enough talent to sustain multiple top 25 programs year in and year out.
As Duke and North Carolina's basketball programs have given them more of a national brand, in-state recruiting may be of slightly less import to their football programs. But, for N.C. State and Dave Doeren, dominating in-state recruiting is paraamount for the program's success. Some of it is owed to the many scholarship openings the turnover in the program after Doeren's hire created--N.C. State simply has more spots to fill than the other in-state programs--but the new coach crushed the competition for in-state recruits in his first full recruiting class. As the chart below indicates, Doeren landed 28% of the top 50 in-state recruits based on 247sports and Rivals' rankings.
24/7 Sports NC Top 50 |
Rivals NC Top 50 |
24/7 Sports Average *s |
Rivals Average *s |
|
N.C. State |
14 |
14 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
North Carolina |
8 |
7 |
3.3 |
3.4 |
Wake Forest |
5 |
2 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
Duke |
3 |
3 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
East Carolina |
2 |
2 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
Wait, Charlotte? Wut? |
0 |
2 |
N/A |
3.0 |
ACC Poached |
8 |
10 |
3.5 |
3.2 |
SEC Poached |
4 |
4 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
Other |
2 |
2 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
Unsigned |
4 |
4 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
According to Rivals, the Pack doubled the Heels' output and totaled as many commits as the combined tally for UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, and East Carolina. Five of those 14 NC top 50 guys held offers from UNC (and that doesn't include former baseball minor leaguer Ty Linton, who flipped from the Heels to run with the Pack and will have his scholarship covered by the Arizona Diamondbacks). One would think that such in-state dominance will lead to some key rivalry game wins and maybe even that elusive mythical state championship down the road.
Despite Doeren's big splash on the recruiting trail, one obvious problem remains for the Pack going forward: they can't take 30 bazillion kids every year. Next year's team has just 15 scholarship seniors; even if a couple guys get kicked off the team (Shad?) or fail to do the job in the classroom, #Pack15 will likely hold less than 20 newcomers. If Doeren can't overwhelm with numbers, he will have to keep the rest of the league and the SEC from poaching the state's top talent. According to 247sports, the Pack's 14 signees that ranked in the state's top 50 averaged out at a solid 3.3 stars. But look at the average star ratings for the talent that left for other ACC schools (mostly Clemson) and the SEC. The Floridas and Georgias of the world don't come to NC for three-star kids. They're turning them down left and right in their own backyard. Top programs from outside the state come to poach the state's top talent; half of the 247sports top 10 from NC pledged to out-of-state programs, and Derrell Scott will likely make it 60% when he heads to either South Carolina or Tennessee.
Doeren picking up Penn State decommit Troy Vincent, Jr. was impressive, but it marked just the seventh time in the last 10 years that N.C. State got four-star talent from outside of the state, and the first time the program nabbed a four-star someone from outside of a bordering state since something called Kyle Newell committed from Pennsylvania in 2005. The team is going to ultimately live or die on its in-state recruiting success, so next year Doeren will need to match the NC quantity with NC quality to maintain the momentum of the program. The good news is that the class of 2015 is loaded with top-tier talent, with six prospects ranked among the Rivals' 2015 national top 150. Those six--#19 Shy Tuttle (DT), #35 Jalen Dalton (DE), #57 Mason Veal (OT), #83 Bryce Love (RB), #89 Darian Roseboro (DE), and #92 Mark Fields (CB)--all hold a Wolfpack offer. Keep an eye on them, as their decisions on whether to run with the Pack or head south to other ACC or SEC schools will weigh heavily on the program's future.