FanPost

Previewing NC State

Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports


Probably wondering what to expect with this team that shows up for all of our games. Here's how the Wolfpack look according to the bullshit numbers through their game with Florida State. (All data from statsheet.com - I can't say whether this is consistent with the data that Akula is pulling for all the opponents.)

The Offense

  • Effective FG% - 51.8 (#80)
  • Turnover % - 17.5 (#62?)
  • Off.Rebound % - 34.9 (#74)
  • FT Rate - 41.3 (#82)

{StatSheet has NC State at 290th in turnovers, but ranks higher percentages at the top, so I've flipped this stat.}

{290th would be believable, since NC State actually turned it over on more than 100% of its possessions against West Virginia. On one possession all 5 guys and Mr. Wuf committed a turnover.)

NC State ranks in the top 25% in every category, and the result is an offensive efficiency of 110.4 which ranks 47th. Their tough SOS results in an even better Pomeroy offensive rating of #23, which is not unusual for a Gottfried team. The pace of 65.8 possessions per game ranks 217th nationally, and is the slowest of Gottfried's tenure.

Junior Alabama transfer Trevor Lacey is the key guy here, as he is playing 85% of the minutes, using up 24% of the possessions when he's on the floor, and shooting at a 57% eFG rate. Fellow wing Ralston Turner has similar shooting numbers at a slightly lower usage rate. Lacey and Turner both shoot above 40% from three and take plenty of them, but Lacey is a threat from everywhere, shooting 50% on twos which make up more than half his shots. A strong case could be made that both Lacey and Turner should be accounting for a higher percentage of the Wolfpack possessions.

Point guard Cat Barber joins Lacey and Turner to average in double figures (11.0 ppg) in over 30 minutes per game. After that the Wolfpack has a group of five players averaging between 16 and 21 minutes per night: inside men Kyle Washington, BeeJay Anya, Lennard Freeman, and Abdul-Malik Abu, and freshman wing Caleb Martin. Martin's twin Cody is only averaging nine minutes per game on the season but has eclipsed his brother in recent games and earned a start against FSU. Washington leads the inside players in scoring at 7.6 per game but is as likely to take a long jumper (he's 5 for 11 on three's for the season) as a layup. Freeman leads in rebounding at 6.2 but is not much of an offensive threat.

The Defense

  • Effective FG% - 44.1 (#38)
  • Turnover % - 15.6 (#344?)
  • Off.Rebound % - 29.3 (#115)
  • FT Rate - 33.2 (#105)

{Not sure that turnover rate ranking is accurate, but it says opponents TO% is 8th, and I know they don't mean that in a good way.} {teamrankings.com has different numbers on turnovers, but has the NC State defense at #339.}

NC State under Gottfried has never been noted for its defense - his manifesto pointedly does not say "we have to guard them" - but this year's group looks like it at least has the potential for success. The problem is turnovers - not nearly enough of them. But in terms of effective possessions, this year's Wolfpack does a decent job of getting out of them without too much damage, avoiding excess fouls, rebounding at an above-average rate, and especially doing its best job in decades of making the shots miss. In particular this is driven by a block percentage above 10, highlighted by BeeJay Anya's sixth-in-the-nation rate of 15.1. Kyle Washington is also top 10 in the ACC in bothering shots. The overall result is a unit that is hovering around 100th in the Pomeroy ratings.

This has all the makings of an NCAA tournament team, but the Wolfpack is going to need to show some real follow-through on its defensive improvement and see that ranking climb closer to the top 50 if it wants to be in position to make serious noise in March.

The 10k predictor likes NC State by 14. Against everybody.