NCAA Regional Win Probabilities: We're Gonna Win! (Most Of The Time)

Liz Condo-USA TODAY Sports

Ken Pomeroy has been applying win probability to estimate which teams have the best odds of winning a given tournament in college basketball. Turns out that sort of thing is doable for baseball as well. Boyd Nation crunched the numbers for each regional, which you can see in full at his site.

Nation estimates that NC State has a 77.2% chance of winning the Raleigh Regional. That's the ninth-highest win probability among the 16 regional host schools. UNC and Virginia are estimated to be near-locks to move on, while Virginia Tech and Kansas State have odds down around 50%. Those are the two regions on the biggest upset watches heading into the weekend. Two ACC schools that aren't hosting--Clemson and Miami--have been given 30% chances or better to pull off upsets and advance (though I'm not sure how much of an upset Clemson over South Carolina would be, really).

So State is a 3-1 favorite to escape Raleigh successfully, and presumably those odds would improve should the Pack win Friday and Ole Miss lose. Could we be that fortunate though? I doubt it. And eternally lurking is that 22.8%, which is obviously the NC State Shit slice of the probability pie.

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