UNC-Greensboro Vs. NC State Preview: Let's Do Some Runnin'

Jeremy Brevard-US PRESSWIRE
UNCG Offense 11-12
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 45.9 289
Turnover Rate 21.1 233
Off Reb Rate 34.6 79
FTA/FGA 31.9 280

UNCG Offense 12-13
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 47.9 182
Turnover Rate 18.1 54
Off Reb Rate 32.8 156
FTA/FGA 33.3 218

UNCG @ StatSheet
2012 Stats
2013 Stats
2013 Roster
2013 Schedule

This is gonna be a smidge shorter than ususal, because in addition to a busy last few days, I also seem to have caught a cold. And right in prime drinking season, too. That is some crap right there.

If there is one thing we've learned from Wes Miller's brief tenure in Greensboro, it's that he is not much interested in playing a halfcourt game. His team ranked 9th last year in adjusted tempo and it's sixth so far this season, and if the Spartans are indeed willing to run with NC State, then we could have some big-time highlights in this game. Because Greensboro, which is Jim Boeheim's least favorite university in America, is continuing a decade-long tradition of being bad at both ends of the floor, especially defensively.

Last season, UNCG's offense was keyed by a pair of guards--Trevis Simpson and Derrell Armstrong both took at least 30% of the team's shots while on the floor, so you can imagine how that looked with both of them out there. Simpson actually led the nation in %Shots (38.4), which is to say that he took about four of every 10 of the Spartans' shots while he was on the court.

Both players are back this year, and they're still firing away like there's no tomorrow. They are getting some help from freshman forward Kayel Locke, but for the most part, it's just Simpson, Armstrong, and a bunch of role players.

The Spartans have been shooting threes at an above-average rate, in part because of the shoot-and-ask-questions-later nature of the team, but also because they simply don't have anyone to reliably score points in the paint.

Simpson and Armstrong can keep their team in games if they catch fire; otherwise, there's this little tiny problem called defense...

UNCG Defense 11-12
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 52.7 307
Turnover Rate 22.2 68
Off Reb Rate 34.3 258
FTA/FGA 45.3 316

UNCG Defense 12-13
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 54.8 326
Turnover Rate 18.4 275
Off Reb Rate 22.6 1
FTA/FGA 56.1 345

UNCG has played a really weak schedule this season, so it's not that they've been meat for the grinder in various road games against power-conference schools. No, they just really stink. They're allowing opponents to shoot 51% inside the arc and 41.9% outside of it, and they are not particularly disruptive, as evidenced by their low turnover and block rates. That opponent 3FG% number certainly includes some bad luck, but it may also be an indicator of a team that gets out of control and gives up a whole lot of open threes.

The Pomeroy Predictor expects State to win by 28 (and score 100 points).

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