Wake Forest Vs. NC State Preview: The Six Yoots

Peter Casey-USA TODAY Sports
Wake Offense 11-12
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 47.9 210
Turnover Rate 19.2 118
Off Reb Rate 25.7 321
FTA/FGA 40.9 64

Wake Offense 12-13
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 48.7 152
Turnover Rate 20.8 199
Off Reb Rate 29.6 244
FTA/FGA 44.8 19

Wake @ StatSheet
2012 Stats (pdf)
2013 Stats (pdf)
2013 Roster
2013 Schedule

There are youth movements and then there is what Wake Forest is doing this year. The Deacs have nine players averaging double-digit minutes this season, and six are freshmen. One is a sophomore, and then you have the old guard, Travis McKie and C.J. Harris. This could all pay off big for Wake in 2-3 years, but will Jeff Bzdelik be around to coach those teams?

For now, they remain deeply flawed at both ends of the court. On the positive side for Wake Forest offensively, it has improved both its three-point shooting and its offensive rebounding. All told, it's still an offense that is roughly as effective as it was a year ago, which might be considered a victory given all the yoots involved. There is only so much that McKie and Harris can do, and quite frankly, they need to be doing more.

The truly important thing, though, is that Wake Forest appears to be on the road to recovery from Chronic Brick Fatigue Syndrome--along with the aforementioned offensive rebounding, the Deacs' effective field goal percentage is a bit better as well. I'm always encouraged to see this sort of thing, because believe me, CBFS can take you to dark places.

Startery Types:

Codi Miller-McIntyre (6-3, 195) --Solid assist rate, and he's a decent outside shooter (35.3%). He's not very good inside the arc, though, and he only rarely gets to the line, which suggests that he isn't getting the rim a whole hell of a lot. Make him put it on the floor.

C.J. Harris (6-3, 190) -- Like last season, Harris is scoring efficiently inside and out. The problem for Wake Forest is that his workload is down this year, and that simply shouldn't be the case. It's understandable that something like this would happen given that Wake is integrating so many fresh faces into its rotation, but it's costing this offense. There are two freshman taking more shots while on the floor, and their eFGs are way way way way way way lower than Harris'. Harris is shooting 44.6% from three, 53.3% from two, and 83.3% from the line. That's not a guy I want taking less than 21% of the shots.

Arnaud Moto (6-6, 225) -- He's rebounding pretty well at both ends and doing a good job of drawing fouls, but the shooting...the shooting is pretty bad in every respect. He's 3-16 from three and a hair over 51% at the free throw line so far; turnovers are also a problem.

Travis McKie (6-7, 220) -- McKie is only a junior and it feels like he's been in Winston-Salem for ages. That's the nature of college basketball time, I guess, where anyone who stays past the first couple of years in a single program seems like they've been there for like 10 years. Old man McKie remains a very good all-around player, though his shooting percentages are down a bit this year. But he's still a good scorer and an absolutely vital part of Wake's offense.

Devin Thomas (6-9, 240) --Thomas is Wake's best overall rebounder and he's good at bothering shots, but he is also rather turnover prone, and his two-point accuracy (45.7%) needs to improve, as does his free throw shooting (49.1%). But at least he hasn't bothered to take a three-pointer this year.

Bench:

Aaron Rountree (6-8, 190), Tyler Cavanaugh (6-9, 230), Chase Fischer (6-3, 195), Madison Jones (6-1, 160). Fischer is primarily a three-point shooter, as was the case a year ago. This season he's hitting better than 44% from deep, and that's pretty much the extent of his game. The other three guys are freshmen.

Cavanaugh is taking nearly a quarter of the shots while he's on the floor and he is shooting 33.3% from two and 24.2% from beyond the arc. Again, he is 6-9. Thirty-three percent inside the three-point line. Second-largest workload on the team. You can see the problem here.

Jones has a fun line in that he is a 6-1 whose 2FG5 (50.0) is higher than his FT% (44.7). That's impressive in its own way. He's not a major part of the offense--more of a pass-first guard--and turnovers are a major problem.

Rountree is shooting really well in limited action; looking at his line, it's hard to figure why he hasn't been able to claim more minutes from the other freshmen on this team.

Wake Defense 11-12
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 50.2 224
Turnover Rate 18.2 278
Off Reb Rate 33.1 220
FTA/FGA 30.8 50

Wake Defense 12-13
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 48.7 192
Turnover Rate 20.2 192
Off Reb Rate 31.8 172
FTA/FGA 35.2 161

Wake is rebounding better and forcing more turnovers than it ever has in the Bzdelik era, which isn't saying a whole lot, but hey, improvement! The Deacs are right around the NCAA average in both 2FG% defense and 3FG% defense; it's just an unremarkable unit across the board.

The Pomeroy Predictor likes State by seven.

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