Florida State Vs. NC State Preview: What Happened To The Ham Power?

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
FSU Offense 11-12
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 51.2 79
Turnover Rate 23.6 323
Off Reb Rate 35.3 57
FTA/FGA 34.8 211

FSU Offense 12-13
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 50.0 106
Turnover Rate 21.9 266
Off Reb Rate 30.1 229
FTA/FGA 40.4 58

FSU @ StatSheet
2013 Stats (pdf)
2013 Roster
2013 Schedule

Ham's teams haven't typically been known for their offense--the Seminoles ranked 75th in offensive efficiency last year, which was their highest ranking since 2007. Turnovers have been a serious issue for FSU for years now...it's just something the Noles cannot seem to fix, and that can lead to some really ugly basketball at times. In the past they'd been able to rely on good offensive rebounding, but that's kinda disappeared so far this year, though they remain an above-average shooting team.

On the whole, though, this offense is the rough equivalent of the offenses we've seen from FSU over the last four years, and those teams all made the NCAAs. This year they have an uphill battle to make the NCAAs. So what's the difference? I'll give you one guess.

Startery type people (Ham's rotation is indecipherable so I'm just gonna toss some names out here):

Devon Bookert (6-3, 185) -- His three-point field goal percentage is higher than his 2FG%... and he's hitting 51.2% of his twos. It's helps that he's only taking around 13% of the shots, though. His assist rate is good, but he turning the ball over too much.

Terry Whisnant (6-3, 185) -- Primarily a three-point shooter, and he's a good one; he is hitting 38.6% from outside.

Michael Snaer (6-5, 202) -- Florida State has a -10.9 efficiency margin in league play, and yet it is 6-6. How does that happen? Michael Snaer. He's made three buzzer-beating game-winning shots this year alone. He banked home a three to topple Clemson, he nailed a corner jumper to beat Maryland, and then he pushed a Georgia Tech defender into third row to free up space for a game-winning layup. The team's six league wins have come by a total of 18 points.

His eFG% is down a bit this year, but he remains a dangerous three-point shooter, and he's doing a better job of getting to the free throw line, where he is shooting 79.8%.

Okaro White (6-8, 204) -- White is having a career year in several categories, including eFG% (53.7), 2FG% (55.4), OR% (9.6), TO% (14.8), Blk% (4.5), and FTR (54.5). He's a good shooter at the free throw line and he's also good enough from beyond the arc to keep defenses honest.

Kiel Turpin (7-0, 240) -- Outstanding shot botherer, and he's making about half his twos. He should be able to grab more than 13.4% of available defensive boards, though.

Bench:

Aaron Thomas (6-5, 195), Ian Miller (6-3, 186), Montay Brandon (6-7, 216), Boris Bojanovsky (7-3, 240). Florida State is 12th nationally in bench minutes, so who the heck knows who is gonna play when. We'll probably see all these guys. It's a worry that the Seminoles might be able to wear us down, but there is a lot of inexperience here.

FSU Defense 11-12
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 43.7 10
Turnover Rate 22.1 77
Off Reb Rate 32.9 213
FTA/FGA 34.3 128

FSU Defense 12-13
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 49.5 216
Turnover Rate 22.0 73
Off Reb Rate 36.2 319
FTA/FGA 33.2 118

FSU's defensive efficiency ranks over the last five years:

2009: 12
2010: 1
2011: 1
2012: 15
2013: 137

They made a living on dominant interior defense, and for whatever reason, it's just not there this season. In league play, the Seminoles rank 11th in eFG% defense and 10th in 2FG% defense. Those struggles may be related to the fact that they're giving up so many more offensive rebounds this year--they're dead last in that category in ACC games. It doesn't help either that they've been unlucky in terms of opponents' three-point accuracy.

The Pomeroy Predictor likes NC State by 13.

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