Temple Vs. NC State Preview: Terror Time Arrives

Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Temple Offense 2011-12
Four Factrs Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 53.1 30
Turnover Rate 18.3 58
Off Reb Rate 31.6 195
FTA/FGA 34.2 228

Temple Offense 2012-13
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 49.2
134
Turnover Rate 16.2 9
Off Reb Rate 31.2 190
FTA/FGA 35.5 185

Temple @ StatSheet
2012 Stats
2013 Stats
Roster
Schedule

Fran Dunphy built an Ivy League power at Penn; the Quakers won nearly 80% of their conference games during his tenure. He moved to a different part of Philly in 2006 to take over a Temple program that had lost all momentum under John Chaney. Prior to his arrival, the Owls had missed the previous five NCAA tournaments, and while Dunphy's first year was a struggle, he's had the Owls in the NCAAs each year since.

The 2013 edition is not his best Temple team, but it definitely has some scary aspects to it. The one stat that immediately caught my eye is that turnover rate, because as has been well established by now, NC State's defense ain't so good at forcing miscues. Fortunately, this Temple team does not possess a lot of imposing size, and it hasn't rebounded particularly well at the offensive end this season. If--if--NC State can control the defensive boards, it might could survive an above-average shooting performance by the Owls.

While the Owls are only shooting 33.4% from three this season, the worrisome thing is that 37.2% of their field goal attempts come from beyond the arc. Frequent three-point shooting + fluky-good accuracy = BALLER. No wait that's not right.

Starteryish Persons

Khalif Wyatt (6-4, 210) -- As I mentioned earlier in the week, Wyatt is The Guy; his workload is considerably higher than anybody else on the team. It's also much higher than it was in either of the last two seasons, which seems to have hurt his shooting accuracy. He hit more than half his twos and more than 37% of his threes in both 2011 and 2012, and those numbers are both down this year. But he is still a dangerous scorer from any position on the floor, and his assist and steal rates are good to boot.

Will Cummings (6-2, 175) -- A secondary option in the offense, mainly because he hasn't proven he can score with anything resembling a decent level of efficiency. He's also turnover-prone, though he does a good job of drawing fouls.

Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson (6-6, 215) -- Johnson is the team's best offensive rebounder this season, though that hasn't done much for his two-point accuracy, which is well below what it was over the last two seasons. He's not gonna be shooting any threes. Good steal and block rates.

Scootie Randall (6-6, 225) -- Randall isn't much of a threat to draw fouls, but like Wyatt, he's willing to shoot inside and out. This year he's hit half his twos and 30.8% of his threes; last season he hit 65.3% of his twos and 36.9% of his threes, so he's definitely worth worrying about.

Anthony Lee (6-9, 230) -- Effective scorer in the paint, outstanding defensive rebounder, shot botherer. He is day-to-day with concussion-like symptoms.

Bench

Jake O'Brien (6-9, 220), T.J. DiLeo (6-3, 210), Dalton Pepper (6-5, 220), Quenton DeCosey (6-5, 180). O'Brien is another one of those inside-outside guys, and he's had an outstanding season off the bench, hitting 56.1% of his twos and 42.9% of his threes; both numbers are career-bests. Dude needs to rebound better at the defensive end though.

Dalt-N-Pepa (that's what they call him, right?) is a bit more likely to shoot a three than a two, but figures to miss in either case. DiLeo is the most efficient invisible man in the nation--he takes a mere eight percent of Temple's shots while he's on the floor, but he's making 55.2% of his twos and 36.8% of his threes. He lulls you to sleep by only occasionally touching the ball for 15 minutes and then BAM, he strikes.

Temple Defense 2011-12
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 48.3 148
Turnover Rate 19.4 208
Off Reb Rate 31.9 158
FTA/FGA 33.2 99

Temple Defense 2012-13
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 48.7 176
Turnover Rate 20.2 164
Off Reb Rate 31.9 168
FTA/FGA 33.9 125

Temple played outstanding defense in 2010 and 2011--the big difference between then and now is the interior defense, where the Owls are no longer forcing misses as often as they did in the past and they aren't rebounding as well at this end either. Dunphy's defenses aren't known for forcing a lot of turnovers, so the repercussions stemming from their decline in those other areas are obvious enough.

The Pomeroy Predictor likes State by five.

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