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Rebounding, Rebounding, Rebounding

Connecticut does not have a great offense (UConn averages 107.4 points per 100 possessions), but as you might expect from a team with that kind of size, UConn plays excellent defense. The Huskies have allowed just 91.9 points per 100 possessions this season, which puts them among the 20 best defenses in the country.

Rebounding is one the the major factors in UConn's success.

UCONN O-Reb Rate: 42.8% (easily better than any ACC team)
UCONN D-Reb Rate: 69% (so their opponents are grabbing only about 31% of available offensive boards)

Like Charlotte, the Huskies have a huge advantage in free throw attempts over their opponents (755-498).

UConn is a better shooting team than Charlotte, though they have very little reliance on the three-pointer. Josh Boone has made 61% of his field goal attempts this season.

NC State's O-Reb Rate is a mediocre 33.3%, and the Pack has fewer total rebounds than its opponents this season. For State to be competitive on the glass against UConn, they will have to make a point to box out well, and they'll have to catch a few bounces here and there.

If UConn shoots poorly, it has the potential to score a lot of second chance points. If the Wolfpack gets mauled in this fashion, the upset ain't happening.

If the Pack are efficient on offense and stay competitive on the boards, they'll definitely be in the game. They need to avoid reckless drives into the teeth of UConn's defense, and they need to take advantage of the possible mismatches presented by Ilian Evtimov, Julius Hodge and Andrew Brackman.