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Won't someone think of the upside?

ESPN's John Hollinger rates all of the draft-eligible players with a method involving his player efficiency rating metric, and it seems to work pretty well. He does not have good news for JJ...

This is where things really shift in terms of a player's chances of sticking in the league.

Below 12.5, players face long odds in establishing a career -- forget becoming stars, these guys will just be trying to get to a second contract. Generally, players in this range should be second-rounders, as we're talking about the 14th-to-20th-rated college big men.

Three highly-touted bigs show up surprisingly low here. Robin Lopez has been talked up as a mid-first-rounder, but doesn't appear to have the goods to back it up. Hickson and McGee also are seen as late first-rounders. Any of the three would be among the lowest-rated players taken in Round 1 in the past few years.