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Previewing Wake Forest

2009 Scouting Report/Schedule
2009 Game Plan
2009 Stats (pdf)
2009 Roster

Wake Forest Offense 07-08Four FactorsPercentNat'l RankeFG%48.5222Turnover Rate19.9105Off Reb Rate34.5103FTA/FGA34.2235Wake Forest Offense 08-09Four FactorsPercentNat'l RankeFG%52.559Turnover Rate20.3163Off Reb Rate34.5121
FTA/FGA45.122











In conference play:

 Off_Eff eFG% TO% OR% FTR 2FG% 3FG%
2008 101.5 49.1 19.2 32.7 33.0 48.5 33.7
2009 103.0 49.1 19.3 33.0 42.0 49.0 33.0

Wake Forest lit up BC's forgiving defense twice, but efficient scoring has been hard to come by for the Deacs in their other league games. Prior to their breakout against the Eagles on Sunday, Wake had been held under a point per possession in four straight. John Gasaway had this to say last week:

A few weeks ago who would have believed that Wake Forest would be failing to score a point per trip in ACC play? Well, they are, and it's killing them. Miami's shockingly easy 79-52 win over the Demon Deacons on Wednesday only put an exclamation point at the end of a sentence that had already been started by opponents like Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. Wake is simply getting too few bites at the apple on offense: the Deacons don't "do" offensive rebounds, which is fine--as long as you take excellent care of the ball and shoot, and make, a lot of threes. None of the above, particularly the part about threes, describes Dino Gaudio's team. Forget the obvious differences in tempo and athleticism, the team that the Deacons are really starting to remind me of is Bob Knight-era Texas Tech. There will be only one shot per possession, and you know that shot will be a two.

Indeed, with no reliable outside shooting threat aside from Jeff Teague, the Deacs are not the least bit interested in threes. Only about a fifth of their FGAs are three-point attempts, a proportion that ranks as the 342nd lowest in the country. And no team gets a smaller percentage of its points from outside than does Wake Forest.

The question is: can we make this matter? Probably safe to assume the answer is no.

Starters:

Jeff Teague (6-2, 180)
-- Teague is better in just about every category this season despite assuming a larger workload offensively. This will not be pleasant.

LD Williams (6-4, 210) -- Taking just 15.3% of the Deacs' shots in ACC play, which seems about right for someone with a modest skill set. His 2FG% shooting is better, but he remains a poor outside shooter; to his credit, though, he isn't taking as many threes as he did last season.

James Johnson (6-9, 245) -- The rare player that ranks in the top 500 in both block percentage and steal percentage, he is a big part of Wake's improved defense.

Al-Farouq Aminu (6-9, 215) -- Can do very scary things. Though prone to youthful mistakes-- some poor shots, turnovers--there's a lot about Aminu to like. He's an efficient scorer in the paint (59%), he draws a lot of fouls, he's a solid rebounder at both ends, and he'll block some shots.

Chas McFarland (7-0, 235) -- Hasn't committed a foul in his life--just ask him.

Bench:

Ish Smith (6-0, 175), Harvey Hale (6-3, 195), Tony Woods (6-11, 245), and David Weaver (6-11, 240) will see some time, though the latter three have averaged less than 10 MPG in league play.

Smith will no doubt play stretches alongside Teague, giving Teague the opportunity to play off the ball. As usual, Smith is good at being fast and bad at everything else.

Harvey Hale is a three-point specialist with a career 31.3 3FG%. Which is to say that he is useless.


Wake Forest Defense 07-08Four FactorsPercentNat'l RankeFG%49.3
138Turnover Rate24.228Off Reb Rate34.3238FTA/FGA36.4167Wake Forest Defense 08-09Four FactorsPercentNat'l RankeFG%42.75Turnover Rate21.6122Off Reb Rate30.681
FTA/FGA34.3
128











In conference play:

 Def_Eff eFG% TO% OR% FTR 2FG% 3FG%
2008 104.9 51.9 22.3 35.1 39.8 49.9 37.2
2009 100.3 44.6 19.7 36.2 43.5 45.5 28.6

Wake's move to the pack line defense is paying off big time this season, as their combination of scheme, size, and athleticism make two-pointers really tough to come by.

Pomeroy Predictor likes Wake by 7.