2009 Scouting Report / 2009 Game Plan
Elon Offense '08-'09
|Four Factors||Percent||Nat'l Rank|
|Off Reb Rate||27.9||313|
Friends, I want to talk to you today about an issue that all too often flies under the radar in college basketball. It's a condition that affects tens of college basketball teams each year, the majority of them small schools like Elon. Schools that lack the visibility and the resources necessary to raise awareness and recruit the cure(s). I'm talking about Chronic Brick Fatigue Syndrome. You see, for some teams, missing a lot of shots becomes an impossible psychological burden, especially as the season grows longer. That burden creates a sense of hopelessness that makes it impossible for these teams to rebound their misses. (Researchers have yet to discover a link between CBFS and a low free throw rate, but I have my suspicions.) And from there, well, you can imagine the horror.
|Elon||eFG% (rk)||OR% (rk)||FTR (rk)||Off_Eff (rk)|
|2009||48.4 (198)||27.9 (313)||33.3 (248)||93.6 (283)|
|2010||42.4 (320)||27.3 (308)||19.2 (347)||83.6 (329)|
The days are dark in Burlington. What we have here is a team that has fallen into the pit of despair and, worse, a team that has accepted its station. The fact that the Phoenix are taking a lot more threes this season while at the same time making fewer of them is a clear sign that this program has checked out.
With his efficient paint and offensive glass work, area philanthropist Tracy Smith is leading the fight against CBFS, and while his actions speak loudly indeed, he cannot do it alone.
So what can you do to help the Phoenix and others like them? Greet them warmly whenever you see them. Hug generously. Be a positive enabler. Maybe put in a good word with some decent high school basketball players. The first step is often the biggest step.
Josh Bonney (5-10, 170) -- This guy wins college basketball forever. Behold:
Though it seems he's decided to get rid of the hair this season. Big mistake, if his terrifying lack of efficiency is any indication. Bonney leads the team in scoring, but don't let that fool you into thinking he's good at anything. His terrible shooting was less a problem last year when he was taking a modest 17.2 percent of the shots. He's doubled that workload this season and his effective field goal percentage, not surprisingly, remains putrid (sub-40%). Considering he's a career .200 shooter from outside (15-75), he should probably think about refraining from long distance attempts.
Devan Carter (6-1, 176) -- A career 42.5% shooter from two, 28.6% from three, 59.8% from the line. And this is one of the guys they rely on offensively (24.5% of the shots).
Drew Spradlin (6-5, 192) -- Elon's second-leading scorer and a legitimate perimeter threat, which is probably where he's going to do most of his shooting.
Roger Dugas (6-8, 205) -- A freshman struggling to adjust to the college game, he's doesn't take many shots and doesn't hit many of them when he does. Poor defensive rebounder. And French Canadian. It's just bad news all around with this guy.
Adam Constantine (6-9, 228) -- While Bonney and Carter are wasting shot after shot, Constantine's got to be looking on with a bit of confusion. In 3+ seasons, he's never shot below 57%, he gets to the free throw line fairly often, and he's improved his turnover percentage quite a bit. Yet he's taking just 17.6% of the shots. Elon would be wise to give this guy more opportunities.
Chris Long (6-2, 182), Terrance Birdette (6-2, 180), T.J. Douglas (6-6, 211). Long and Douglas take lots of threes but they're both struggling with sub-30% shooting from outside. Their track records suggest they're much better than that, so it's still a good idea for the Wolfpack to keep an eye on them.
Elon Defense '08-'09
|Four Factors||Percent||Nat'l Rank|
|Off Reb Rate||33.0||185|
So the situation at this end isn't much better. Another midget brigade getting killed in the paint. And whatever speed advantages they possess haven't amounted to much compensation in the way of turnovers.
The Pomeroy Predictor likes State by 24.