I was poking around cfbstats earlier this afternoon trying to get some sort of handle on why the Pack's defense has been so much better in third down situations. I looked at both run and pass plays, and while the rushing stats reflect the larger trend, it's the passing stats that are interesting.
First, here's a look at how our opponents fared in 2009 when they threw the ball on third down:
| 2009 |
Att | Comp | Comp% | Rating | Yds/Att | 1stDown% |
| All 3rd downs | 99 | 62 | 62.6 | 154.23 | 8.0 | 39.4 |
| 3rd down, 1-3 to go | 12 | 8 | 66.7 | 174.67 | 9.6 | 58.3 |
| 3rd down, 4-6 to go | 33 | 24 | 72.7 | 179.17 | 7.9 | 54.5 |
| 3rd down, 7-9 to go | 24 | 13 | 54.2 | 142.22 | 7.2 | 29.2 |
| 3rd down, 10+ to go | 30 | 17 | 56.7 | 128.20 | 8.0 | 23.3 |
[1stDown% = percentage of opponents' 3rd down pass plays that resulted in a 1st down.]
Does any of that ugliness surprise you? No? You just had a horrible flashback to the Duke game? That's my bad. As you can see, opposing quarterbacks were especially effective in third-and-intermediate situations, which is not surprising. Since those are not clear-cut run or pass situations, the defense has to do more guessing. We were horrible guessers. We were also horrible expecters.
Here's 2010:
| 2010 |
Att | Comp | Comp% | Rating | Yds/Att | 1stDown% |
| All 3rd downs | 51 | 18 | 35.3 | 68.31 | 4.7 | 27.5 |
| 3rd down, 1-3 to go | 4 | 2 | 50.0 | 98.3 | 5.8 | 50.0 |
| 3rd down, 4-6 to go | 11 | 5 | 45.5 | 66.22 | 4.6 | 45.5 |
| 3rd down, 7-9 to go | 17 | 6 | 35.3 | 87.15 | 4.4 | 23.5 |
| 3rd down, 10+ to go | 19 | 5 | 26.3 | 46.39 | 4.9 | 15.8 |
This is absurd improvement and it's across the board--every statistic, every situation. The weird thing is our pass defense has been as bad in first and second down situations as it was a year ago (slightly worse, actually, if you go by passer rating). Opponents average 8.1 yards per pass attempt on first down, 7.1 on second down, and then...it's like a steel door slams shut. Completion percentage and output plummet. I have no idea how we're doing this. Scheme? Schedule? Good fortune? A higher proportion of obvious passing situations? Time machine? Bottled Tenuta rage?