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Turnovers And Effective Possessions

One of the things I like to examine every year is the effect of turnovers on offensive efficiency.  Every season there are a few teams living and dying in these margins.  To figure out what a turnover costs, I subtract turnovers from  each team's total possessions, which leaves just the possessions in which each team got a crack at the basket.  These are a team's effective possessions (credit for that term goes to John Gasaway).

To the table:


In ACC Play Pts/100ePoss Pts/100ePoss Rank OFF_EFF Rank
Maryland 134.9 1 2
Duke 134.2 2 1
FSU 128.0 3 10
GT 128.0 4 7
Wake 127.2 5 5
BC 126.0 6 4
UNC 125.3 7 11
Miami 124.6 8 8
VT 123.9 9 6
UVA 123.9 10 3
Clemson 121.4 11 12
NCSU 120.9 12 9



Wouldn't you know it: NC State gets the turnovers under control for the first time in the Lowe era but--also for the first time in the Lowe era--can't shoot a lick.  The Pack gets less from its effective possessions than anybody else in the ACC, and but for their low TO% (4th best in the ACC) would have the conference's least efficient offense.  This is a complete reversal from the previous three years, when the Pack was among the league's best shooting teams but also incredibly mistake-prone.

Elsewhere, it's clear that  turnovers have been an enormous factor in Virginia's surprise season.  Bennett's group ranks sixth in eFG%, 11th in OR%, and 12th in free throw rate but turns the ball over just 16.4% of the team, easily the league's best mark in that category.

Turnovers are hurting Florida State and Georgia Tech quite a bit.  Both teams rank in the top three in offensive rebounding and in the bottom three in turnover percentage.  Georgia Tech is also the second-best shooting team in the league, so there's plenty of room for gains in efficiency if they can take better care of the ball.  But the odds of that happening with Shumpert and Udofia running the show are not so good.