Expanding on this a bit...
| In-Conf | OFF_EFF (rk) | DEF_EFF (rk) | Eff_Margin | ExpW | ActualW |
| Duke | 111.6 (1) | 94.0 (1) | 17.6 | 14 | 13 |
| Maryland | 111.3 (2) | 100.6 (6) | 10.7 | 12 | 13 |
| Clemson | 99.1 (7) | 95.9 (3) | 3.2 | 9 | 9 |
| FSU | 97.8 (10) | 95.4 (2) | 2.4 | 9 | 10 |
| Va Tech | 101.0 (3) | 99.0 (5) | 2.0 | 9 | 10 |
| Wake | 98.6 (8) | 98.8 (4) | -0.2 | 8 | 9 |
| Ga Tech | 100.2 (6) | 101.4 (7) | -1.2 | 7 | 7 |
| BC | 100.7 (4) | 105.6 (11) | -4.9 | 6 | 6 |
| NC State | 98.1 (9) | 105.0 (10) | -6.9 | 5 | 5 |
| Virginia | 96.6 (11) | 103.9 (8) | -7.3 | 5 | 5 |
| Miami | 100.5 (5) | 108.2 (12) | -7.7 | 5 | 4 |
| UNC | 95.9 (12) | 103.9 (9) | -8.0 | 5 | 5 |
Yep, Carolina's dismantling at the hands of Duke last Saturday pushed their efficiency margin all the way to the bottom. But there is very little difference between the Heels and the three teams ahead of them. Not much difference between teams 3-7, either. Could be a really chaotic weekend in Greensboro, and I'm all for that.
As far as expected wins vs. actual wins goes, there are no surprises. Nobody over/underachieved by more than a game. Considering how little separation there is between a lot of teams, I thought we might see some significantly lucky or unlucky results. Didn't work out that way. Pretty much, they are who we thought they were.
Pomeroy's predictions for Thursday's games are available here. No team is expected to win by more than seven points; if it works out that way, it's going to be a fun (if ugly) day.