Previewing Florida State

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If you caught Florida State's win over Duke on Wednesday, or for that matter any other game the Noles have played, you've probably gathered that little has changed in Tallahassee.  And that's true--scoring the ball with any sort of consistency continues to be a problem, while their defense stands as one of the nation's best.

There are some minor differences to this year's version of the offense--they're attempting more threes and their 2FG% is down a few percentage points--but the results are pretty much the same.  Somewhat amazingly, they've turned the ball over at least 20% of the time in every game but one.  Between that and the mediocre shooting, it's a team that needs a lot of help from offensive boards. 

Florida State's weakness for turnovers matches up fortuitously with NC State's passive defense, and while the Pack's defensive rebounding has improved of late, it's nothing I would call reliable.  The potential for an unusually good offensive performance from the Seminoles is there.  NC State likely needs to win both categories in order to win the game, and I don't really care for those odds.

Starters

Derwin Kitchen (6-4, 204) -- Kitchen is having a nice year as plan B to go-to scorer Chris Singleton.  His shooting accuracy is up across the board, and he's cut down on some of the turnovers.

Deividas Dulkys (6-5, 195) -- Dulkys emerged as a fine three-point specialist in 2010 but hasn't been able to keep that up so far this season, as he is shooting a modest 34% from outside.  He is by far their most frequent three-point shooter and doesn't have much use for twos.

Michael Snaer (6-5, 205) -- Turns the ball over at a truly astounding rate for someone who is neither a primary ball handler nor a hulking, coordination-less power forward.  Worse, he's made just 20 of 67 two-point attempts.  His only real value is beyond the arc, where he's shooting 37%.  The two-point shooting will come around to some degree...the turnover rate, probably not.

Chris Singleton (6-9, 220) --Singleton's defensive skills are widely praised, and rightfully so.  His block and steal rates are exceptional, the sure signs of a guy who makes good things happen at the defensive end.  He grabs plenty of defensive boards, too.  It's the other end of the floor that's always been a problem for Singleton, but by the looks of things, that's changing.  While his 2FG% is hovering around 48-49 percent the way it usually does, newfound accuracy at the free throw line and beyond the arc has diversified his game and allowed him to carry a heavy work load with the sort of efficiency that once seemed impossible.  He still isn't a great scorer, but his 53% shooting is a big leap forward.  When you consider his offensive improvements along with his tremendous defensive value, it's not a stretch to say he's a legitimate contender for ACC Player of the Year.  He won't win because he won't have the PPG figure necessary, but there may not be anyone more valuable.

Bernard James (6-10, 240) -- James, who spent six years in the Air Force and served time overseas, is a great story and a pretty good basketball player to boot.  Being several years older than the competition doesn't hurt.  He uses that size the way you'd expect, rebounding well at both ends of floor and blocking a ton of shots.

Bench

Okaro White (6-8, 195), Terrance Shannon (6-8, 220), Luke Loucks (6-5, 205).  White and Shannon are both pretty involved when they're on the floor, White as an inside-outside guy, Shannon as a low block scorer.  White's having a decent debut season but should probably cut down on threes.  Loucks shoots occasionally and does so primarily from outside, though he is not very accurate.

Only three Florida State opponents have cracked the 1.0 points per possession mark this season, and two of those did it only barely.  Which means the Seminoles have all of one poor defensive performance to their credit this season.  Suffice it to say they ain't losing games at this end.

Their interior defense is absolutely terrifying, no less so without the services of Solomon Alabi and Ryan Reid.  Opponents are hitting just 38.8% inside the three-point line (Duke was 8-24 on Wednesday), and literally no one blocks more shots than the Noles.  What really tells the tale is the fact that nearly 40% of opponents' attempts are coming from outside, which is astounding given FSU's preference for man-to-man.  There is a No Admittance sign hanging in the paint and everyone's abiding by it.  Thirty-five of Duke's 61 field goal attempts were threes, an extreme example for sure, but that's what the Noles do.

The Pomeroy Predictor likes FSU by 9.