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Previewing Miami

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2010 Scouting Report / 2010 Game Plan / 2011 Scouting Report / 2011 Game Plan
2011 Stats
2011 Roster
2011 Schedule

Miami Offense 09-10
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 52.7 38
Turnover Rate 21.1 206
Off Reb Rate 34.7 96
FTA/FGA 37.0 185
Miami Offense 10-11
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 51.0 94
Turnover Rate 19.6 115
Off Reb Rate 37.1 40
FTA/FGA 45.3 30

 

 

 

 

 

Ah, Miami, NC State's brother from another mother.  While Frank Haith has been able to break the Sidney Lowe ceiling and win more than six conference games in season, his program's success is limited by the same thing Lowe's is: indifferent defense.  Miami usually has enough weapons at the offensive end to make the offense competitive in the ACC, but the Hurricanes' defense regularly finishes among the worst in the league.  The 2007 team set a post-expansion record by allowing conference foes to score 1.17 points per trip, really an incredible and seemingly unreachable number.  At the rate their respective defenses are going this year, both NC State and Wake Forest will challenge that record.

Offensively the Canes should be fine, and on some nights that alone will be enough, as when they beat Boston College by scoring 72 points in 61 possessions.  As usual they like to take threes and they shoot them pretty well.  Both Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant have played well at the guard spots.  Reggie Johnson is the best low post scorer Haith has had in a while and a dominant offensive rebounder.

They've been able to cut down on giveaways and grab a few more of their own misses, two improvements that have carried over into conference play.  Through four games they're first in turnover percentage and third in offensive rebounding percentage, which has helped them weather some unusually poor shooting.  As the shooting comes around they should move up from sixth in offensive efficiency.

So for the most part it comes down to defense for Miami...again.  But as Lowe and Haith prove year after year, a turnaround borne of solid D is a lot easier said than done.

Starters

Durand Scott (6-3, 200) -- Scott has improved his outside shot quite a bit but that's not really his game--only about a fifth of his field goal attempts are threes.  He'd much rather attack inside the arc, where he shot 50% last season, or draw a foul and get points at the line, which has been one of his biggest assets this season.  Neither he nor Grant are players State wants to foul under any circumstances.

Malcolm Grant (6-1, 180) -- Grant seems to be allergic to twos; not to taking them, just to making them.  He made about 37% in 2010 and sits in the same neighborhood this year.  No problem with threes, though: he's well over 40% for his career, and the sample size is not small.

Garrius Adams (6-6, 196) -- As a freshman, Adams was the dreaded three-point specialist who couldn't make threes (29%).  It remains to be seen what kind of shooter he really is, but he has a little more balance to his game this season and his free throw rate has almost doubled, which helps some.

Adrian Thomas (6-7, 226) -- Thomas's college basketball career has been difficult on his health.  A pair of season-ending injuries, suffered in back-to-back seasons, put a dent in his progress.  On the plus side, as he enters his 13th season with the Canes, he can boast two undergraduate degrees, a J.D., and a Ph.D. in Epidemiology. Way to get your money's worth, Adrian.  A true three-point specialist and a good one, three out of every four shots come from outside.

Reggie Johnson (6-10, 303) --Johnson garnered a lot of attention with his play in the ACC tournament last year and has not failed to build on that.  He is shooting 58% despite a big workload and he's very good at the free throw line, which separates him from some of the other elite big men in the league.  His greatest skill is offensive rebounding...or his 300 pounds.  However you want to look at it.  Johnson's offensive rebounding percentage ranks third in the nation.  His problem is staying on the floor; foul trouble is a nightly concern.  He has committed at least four fouls in 12 of Miami's 18 games.

Bench

Erik Swoope (6-6, 230), Rion Brown (6-5, 188), Julian Gamble (6-9, 258). Brown is shooting 36% beyond the arc, which is where he does most of his work.  Gamble is shooting 60% inside while committing a bunch of turnovers.

Miami Defense 09-10
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 46.6 72
Turnover Rate 20.0 195
Off Reb Rate 31.0 94
FTA/FGA 36.2 142
Miami Defense 10-11
Four Factors Percent Nat'l Rank
eFG% 46.5 78
Turnover Rate 18.5 274
Off Reb Rate 33.6 216
FTA/FGA 38.5 186

 

 

 

 

 

Their FG% defense in league play hasn't been bad. Not as good as that overall number on the right, but good enough to sustain a solid defense with help in a couple other areas. It's their inability to force turnovers or rebound that's been killing them.  Rebounding is one reason why it's so important for Miami to keep Johnson on the floor--he's excellent at this end as well.  And he's pretty much the only above-average defensive rebounder they have.

The Pomeroy likes State by two.