|Off Reb Rate
|Off Reb Rate
Heading into the 2011 season, Maryland faced a huge challenge in having to replace not only Greivis Vasquez, but Landon Milbourne and Eric Hayes as well. That trio gave the Terps one of the most efficient offenses in the country and the ACC last season; they were 5th nationally in offensive efficiency and second in the ACC. Nobody shot the ball better than they did in league play last year, and they also took excellent care of the ball.
Both their shooting and their offense rebounding regressed significantly in conference play this year, and the result is an offense scoring about 8 fewer points per 100 possessions. Since their defense is almost exactly where it was a year ago--giving up about a point per trip to conference foes--it's the offense that's primarily responsible for their slide from conference heavyweight to conference mediocrity.
Their three-point accuracy is down significantly, especially in conference play, while their free throw shooting has gone from strength to weakness. Here they obviously miss Greivis Vasquez, who made 86% of his 161 free throw attempts in 2010, and Eric Hayes, who made 45% of his 141 three-point attempts. The outside shooting was irreplaceable, while the guy going to the line in bulk this year, Jordan Williams, is just a 57% shooter.
Williams is have a fantastic sophomore campaign, clearly building on what was a solid freshman debut. He's become a double-double machine. And the Terps have gotten solid contributions from a pair of freshman guards. It just hasn't been enough to prevent a significant slide at the offensive end that has probably doomed them to the NIT.
Terrell Stoglin (6-1, 185) -- Stoglin, who was a fringe top 100 recruit out of Arizona, has been a big pleasant surprise for Maryland this season. Despite using a quarter of the team's possessions--more than Jordan Williams, even--he's made more than half of his twos and about 35% of his threes. He is just 8-34 from outside in ACC play, though. His assist rate is good, and he's been good at the line.
Adrian Bowie (6-2, 190) -- Bowie profiles similarly--he's hit around half of his twos and 34% of his threes. That three-point percentage is down considerably from where it was a year ago, however, and conference play has not been kind to him.
Sean Mosley (6-4, 210) -- Mosley was excellent a year ago, an efficient role player who was effective all over the court. This year his workload is up a bit and he's lost his touch beyond the arc. That's not a huge deal since he doesn't take a lot of shots out there, but it has made it harder for him to keep defenders honest.
Dino Gregory (6-7, 230) -- His workload and effectiveness are up, though that's not saying a whole lot considering the low standards he set in those areas over the last two years. But it's transformed him from an afterthought to a decent role player. He's their best shot blocker.
Jordan Williams (6-10, 260) -- As I mentioned earlier, Williams is having himself a hell of a season, and he's the most consistent scoring/rebounding dual threat in the league. He has recorded double-doubles in 20 games this season, and for a stretch from late November to late January, recorded 13 in a row. He rebounds very well at both ends of the floor and rarely turns the ball over. As impressive as the rebounding numbers are, what's taking him from good to great is his interior scoring. In 2010 he was more of a role player, took about 20% of the shots, shot about 51%. He stepped into a go-to role this season and increased his 2FG% to 55%, which is an impressive sign of progress. He's done a better job of staying out of foul trouble and he's a solid shot blocker as well. The thing that hurts him is his poor free throw shooting, because he gets to the line often.
Pe'Shon Howard (6-3, 195), Cliff Tucker (6-6, 205), James Padgett (6-8, 225), Haukur Palsson (6-6, 190). Between Stoglin and Howard, the Terps have the foundation for a pretty good backcourt down the line. Howard is a little better beyond the arc, a little better at dishing assists. Ball security and free throw shooting have been problems.
Tucker is second on the team in scoring and third in workload, so he should be a significant factor off the bench. He shoots pretty well inside and out.
|Off Reb Rate
|Off Reb Rate
Maryland's defense ranks 7th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, but it has not been an elite unit in conference play. Allowing a point per trip, as they have, is good work, but nothing special.
The main reason for that, as you can see, is FG% defense. They rank in the top half of the league in the other three factors, but they've had a hard time forcing conference opponents to miss shots. Fortunately for them, they've been good enough in the turnover and rebounding categories to avoid a real issue at this end of the floor.
The Pomeroy Predictor likes Maryland by 13. For reasons that escape me, the Ratings love this team. They're #19 despite a 16-10 record. No doubt the highly-ranked defense has a lot to do with it, but I don't know how well that reflects reality given their in-conference performance.