|Off Reb Rate
|Off Reb Rate
Hello, everyone, and welcome to conference play. Please hold all applause until the end of the presentation. As we learned Saturday, it's a good idea not to take too much for granted--Georgia Tech was competitive at home against Duke, Florida State was blown out at Clemson, Wake beat Virginia Tech--but that's a big part of the fun, right? And the sadness. It's a big part of the sadness.
The Maryland Terrapins are arguably the biggest x-factor heading into league play, as they've recently added the services of Pe'Shon Howard, who'd been recovering from injury, and Alex Len, who'd been suspended for 10 games because the NCAA got bored or something. The Terps are probably a couple of years away from really making noise in the ACC, and the same could be said about NC State, but depending on how they adapt to the reinforcements from this point on, they could surprise some people in league play.
That said, this is a deeply flawed basketball team that is way too dependent on one player for offensive production, and their defensive play has left a lot to be desired. There's only so much that one seven-footer can change in 20 games.
Offensively, this team is not as accurate as it was a year ago from anywhere on the floor. The Terps are also turning the ball over more often. But they've done a much better job of getting to the free throw line and they're rebounding well at the offensive end, and that was before they added Len's talents in that area (which are impressive). So they've been pretty good in the two least important factors.
Given that this is an average shooting club, and that the Pack doesn't force turnovers but rather merely stumbles upon them, it's more crucial than it might otherwise be to take care of the defensive glass. Limit Maryland's second chance points and they're likely to have a modest day offensively. Likely. I said likely. I make no promises, and this is not a jinx in any way shape or form. Not a jinx.
Terrell Stoglin (6-1, 185) -- There are some guys who make you wonder, "how did the scouts miss this dude?" even when you know the answer. Stoglin was a three-star prospect out of Arizona, and he eluded the in-state schools probably because of his stature and because he's not exceptionally athletic. But he came in and was an instant impact, efficient contributor with a major workload. That's the definition of "blue chip." Stoglin takes almost 38% of Maryland's shots while he is on the floor--that's the third highest proportion in the country--and yet he's managed a respectable 50.0 eFG%. Last year he made half his twos, and this year his three-point accuracy has improved a lot. Forget about this guy and he can easily go Greivis Vasquez on you and score 10 straight.
Pe'Shon Howard (6-3, 195) -- Howard has had no trouble shooting the ball since returning from injury, though he's been reluctant to do so (16 FGA in 123 minutes), which is probably part of the reason why he's been so accurate. He was a pass-first guard as a freshman last season as well, and while he has enough range to be of concern, the defensive strategy probably is to play off him a bit. His assist rate is outstanding, but he's had trouble with turnovers throughout his career.
Sean Mosley (6-4, 210) -- Hasn't he been there 10 years? He's one of those names that just seems to be on the roster every year forever. And he's been so up and down that it's tough to get a read on him. He'll shoot well at the free throw line and he turns the ball over too much. Beyond that--in terms of his shooting skill--it's tough to say. He's hitting 39% of his threes this year, and he has been more three-inclined than he has in the past.
James Padgett (6-8, 225) -- Padgett leads the country in offensive rebounding percentage; he grabs one of every five of the team's offensive boards while he is on the floor. (If you were wondering, Richard Howell is #26.) What's weird is that his OR% (21.7) is almost double his DR% (10.4), which is totally backwards. Maryland ranks 176th in DR%, so you could say he's part of the solution and the problem. Otherwise he is a modest offensive contributor--he'll hit about half his twos and half his free throws and won't turn it over too much.
Alex Len (7-1, 225) -- Len has worked his way into the mix quickly--following his suspension, he's started every game and averaged about 25 minutes a night. He has made 15 of 19 field goal attempts and his rebounding percentages are what you'd expect from a talented tall person. Plenty of blocked shots too. He's also turning the ball over a ton. But we are talking about 74 minutes of playing time.
Nick Faust (6-6, 175), Ashton Pankey (6-9, 220), Berend Weijs (6-10, 200), Mychal Parker (6-5, 195). Faust has hit 38% of his twos and 21% of his threes but he also takes an above average proportion of shots, which makes him both a huge liability and the most likely random where'd-he-come-from candidate on Sunday. When he goes for 20 on 7-10 shooting, that's NC State Shit wishing you a happy new year and also reminding you that 103 career college field goal attempts are not predictive.
Pankey has been a light contributor but a solid one in most respects--they don't ask him to handle a lot at the offensive end, but when he has his chances he's not bad. Won't turn the ball over too much, rebounds well.
Parker is another light-usage guy and not especially accurate, though he is willing to shoot from outside and State's defense needs to be aware of that.
|Off Reb Rate
|Off Reb Rate
While they've held steady in rebounding and foul rates, they've slipped almost 230 spots in defensive efficiency because the other two factors have declined significantly. The culprit for the drop in FG% defense is interior D, which Alex Len could fix to some extent. They're 341st in steal percentage, though, and I'm not sure what has to change in order to turn that around and up their TO%.
The Pomeroy Predictor likes NC State by 15.