In an attempt to cut through this recent preseason poll hysteria, one man has attempted to look into the future with the help of tempo-free stats. Here are the projected ACC standings, including conference records:
1.) Duke (13-5)
2.) NC State (12-6)
3.) UNC (11-7)
4.) MIami (11-7)
5.) FSU (11-7)
6.) UVA (10-8)
7.) VT (10-8)
8.)UMd (9-9)
9.) Clemson (7-11)
10.) BC (5-13)
11.) GT (5-13)
12.) Wake (4-14)
Regarding Duke's projection, I'd imagine this has a lot to do with the optimism:
The model says that based on history, Mike Krzyzewski won't have a bad defensive team two years in a row. Whether it will be recruit Rasheed Sulaimon or Tyler Thornton, someone will get more minutes on the perimeter and become a defensive stopper.
But Duke's defensive issues were inside, where they weren't disruptive (modest block rate) and only average in terms of their defensive rebounding and 2FG% defense. With one Plumlee--an outstanding defensive rebounder--out the door I'm not sure improvement there is a given. They have a couple of big men coming off redshirts (Marshall Plumlee, Alex Murphy) whose impacts won't be known for a while, and they could still add to their 2012 class. We'll see.
As for State, it's another data point that can be filed under "no you are not crazy, they really could be very good next year," so that's nice. Not crazy! Yeah! *puts on pants, stops carving canoe out of giant tree hauled into living room*