I Want Some of What Jerry Palm is Smoking

Despite North Carolina's 1-5 start and N.C. State sitting at 3-3 with a road trip to Tallahassee looming like a nuclear winter, CBS's Jerry Palm, who is presumably paid good money to keep track of these things, has both the Heels and the Pack projected as bowl teams. The winner of the Heels-Pack contest may well have a good shot at a bowl, but given both teams' slim margin for error at this point, the fact that they have a game remaining against each another just increases the absurd notion that both programs will reach a bowl.

The Heels have played a very difficult schedule and, despite their laughable record, should be no worse than a Vegas tossup in home games against Boston College and Duke and a road tilt at Pittsburgh. The Heels will be favorites against the Pack, Virginia, and FCS Old Dominion. They certainly could go 5-1 against the soft second half of their slate, but I am not sure what Palm has seen that inspires confidence that this will happen. Though UNC has taken a big step back offensively without the Italian Stallion Giovani Bernard, Bryn Renner and Eric Ebron remain dangerous. The bigger problem for the Heels is that they can't stop anybody. The Football Outsiders S&P metric paints them as the 73^rd "best" defense in the country, and things are even bleaker according to the DFEI measure, which pegs the Heels at 85^th. There are probably at least two teams left on the schedule that can take advantage of that defense and keep the Heels from bowling for a second straight season.

Despite being only three wins from eligibility, the road to a bowl is probably even more of an uphill battle for N.C. State, a team that is not likely to be favored in Vegas to win even one more game this season. The Pack have won seven of their last 15 against Florida State, a near split record in the series over the last decade and a half that must be the envy of the rest of the ACC, but the Noles appear better than they have been at nearly any point in that stretch while the Pack are plumbing the depths of injury-riddle, rebuilding futility. FSU is a 31.5 point favorite.

Assuming the Pack cannot spring another national-championship derailing upset in the series, they will fall to 3-4 and need to go at least 3-2 against UNC, @Duke, @Boston College, East Carolina, and Maryland to make a bowl. N.C. State is ranked at least 29 spots behind all of those programs in the S&P/FEI combined ratings and at least 23 spots behind all of them in the Sagarin ratings. The wildcard in the Pack's back pocket comes in the form of Brandon Mitchell, the team's soon-to-return starting quarterback. If Mitchell provides a significant upgrade over Pete Thomas, the Pack should be on par with all their opponents not named Florida State. Winning three of five then seems plausible, but expectations have to be tempered by the fact that Mitchell has attempted all of three passes this season. We really have no idea what we have here.

Here's a handy table showing UNC and N.C. State's remaining schedule with the Football Outsiders and Sagarin rankings for each opponent.

And, because tables are fun, here are bowl projections from Palm and other "BCS experts" that include the BCS bowls and all bowls with ACC tie-ins. The bowls are listed in (more or less) reverse order from when they will be played.

Apparently Palm did not share that dank indo with the other experts.