NC State's spot in the field of 64 is secure and has been for a long time; we just don't know quite where the tournament selection committee will see fit to place the Wolfpack.
(Update: We are hosting, my friends! Forgot they announced the hosts the night prior to the full selection show. Apologies for the unnecessary sweat that occurs below. Go Pack.)
NCAA baseball tourney selection show
Start time: Noon ET
Online streaming: WatchESPN
NC State's hosting resume is excellent, but external factors and a bad finish to the regular season are working against the Pack. There are a lot of teams in the ACC lining up for those coveted hosting spots, and State's lost ground to pretty much all of them over the last few weeks.
I'm guessing that this will come down to a decision between either NC State or Virginia when the committee gets down to the nitty gritty of the last few spots. State has the head-to-head, but UVA has a superior conference record and got a big win over Louisville (a sure national seed) on Saturday night.
One thing to bear in mind here: if NC State is not hosting a regional, don't assume the Pack is going to be a two-seed somewhere in the southeast. The folks at D1baseball.com have been projecting the Pack out west as a No. 1 seed at Arizona State. (Could be Arizona instead.)
That might seem like a slight, but actually that would be a good draw because the Pac-12 (and the west coast in general) is weak this year. Basically, it would be the committee acknowledging NC State's outstanding resume and offering a concession for what could be considered a host-site snub.
It's almost certain that a regional in the southwest would be easier to navigate than, say, a regional at Coastal Carolina. Sure there's extra travel, but you're on the road either way. The more I think about this possibility, the more I like it.
This discussion could end up moot, of course. To the whims of the selection committee we go!