FanPost

NC State Baseball: RPI Iteration #3

We are officially at the halfway point of our season with 28 games in the books. State stands at 23-5 after taking 2 of 3 against both the Techs over the past two weekends. We are yet to lose a series and the series win streak actually extends to last year's season series win over Va Tech in Raleigh at the end of April. We currently lead the ACC at 9-5 tied with Duke, a game ahead of Clemson and two games ahead of FSU in our division. Duke and Carolina sit atop the Coastal, and it really is just the two of them in the Coastal and then a bag of cat turds there after.

State, to date, has competed in the ACC against Boston College (home), Clemson (away), Georgia Tech (home) and Virginia Tech (away). If you had told me that the only series we would sweep would be Clemson, I would have bet you the moon you were wrong, but that is where we stand. Of those teams, only Clemson has a winning record in the ACC and GT would join them in competition above the .500-mark overall. I bring this up to temper expectation and to say, obviously, sports are sports some times, but we have a long way to go.

We will, of course, look at competition up until this point to see how they are doing:

  • Team...........Number of Games Against; RPI at first eval; RPI this eval; +/- change since last
  • Seton Hall.............3; 54; 43; +11
  • NC A&T.................1; 285; 253; +32
  • Charlotte...............1; 160; 130; +30
  • Furman.................3; 123; 145; -22
  • Air Force...............1; 212; 107; +105
  • Bowling Green......1; 277; 267; +10
  • Campbell...............2; 158; 186; -28
  • Canisius.................1; 166; 149; +17
  • Boston College.......3; 125; 93; +42
  • UNC-A...................2; 217; 152; +65
  • Clemson.................3; 6; 4; +2
  • Georgia Tech..........3; 13; 35; -22
  • George Mason........1; 262; 210; +52
  • Virginia Tech..........3; 116; 103; +13
Georgia Tech is doing more for us right now, but with a really tough back half of the schedule and the fact that their pitching looks to be wanting, I expect their RPI to drop below 50 at some point and stay there. The other Tech sitting at 103, is actually not that bad given they are below .500. They have a manageable back half with only true difficult tasks against Duke and Carolina and they get the Devils at home. They may have a chance to move into the top 100 by year end. I won't expect BC to do us any favor at this point. Life is going to be brutal for them the remainder through with the only toss-up series happening to be vs. Pitt and at ND. They are probably only favored to win the Pitt series at this time.

State may have the hardest conference schedule remaining in the ACC, but if we can come through the UofL series looking good, it means you are only looking at one more away series (Duke) before closing out the year at FSU. That means 16 of the last 28 are home games and only 6 of those will be outside the state of NC. State enters our look this week at 17 in the RPI, and as you will see in a minute, behind some curious teams.

The ACC is shaping up to be a strong league via RPI again this year. From top RPI through bottom.

4. Clemson - They swept BC this weekend and remain in the top 10 of the RPI. I find it curious they are ahead of us only for the fact that we swept them... in Clemson. They have played a tougher schedule to date, no doubt, and they sit a game behind us in the Atlantic Division. They have a relatively easy back half of a schedule with @ ND; Miami; @ Wake; @UVa; FSU; @ PItt remaining. It's a lot of road games, but Clemson is a good team and these are the biggest challenges outside FSU whom they get at home. They will be with us until the end.

7. FSU - The quandary of Tallahassee seems to be righting the ship. They have ACC games remaining as follows: @ GT; Duke; @BC; Miami; @ Clemson; NC State. Not too bad as schedules go but definitely three big series in there. Miami, while not that great this year, is always going to compete against FSU, so they will have a tough go.

12. UNX - How and why is Carolina ranked in the top 25? I still cannot figure this one, but here they stand. They have definitely made their record look better since getting walloped at the beginning of the year and they sit fourth overall in the league right now after sweeping Wake this weekend in Chapel Hill. They will finish out the ACC slate with @ Miami; @ UVa; GT; @ NC State; @ Duke; VT. Much like FSU, this is a manageable schedule with State and Duke being the key weekends.

17. NC State - This is where we stand this week... we are up from the previous weeks. My cautious nature says this is a good spot for us to be... for now. The schedule will tell our story soon enough. Finding another starting pitcher would assist our rise, but two out of three is where we sit and so the weekend series have gone.

33. UofL - Here is our competition this weekend and it is tough to know what to make of them. They had yet another weak OOC schedule (we cannot hold our heads too high) which has seemed to define UofL baseball the past few years, but they opened up ACC play taking the series from UNX before dropping the next three to Wake, Clemson and FSU. This series is bigger for us than it is for them. The Cardinals are not going to challenge for the league title this year without McKay, but that does not mean they cannot play spoiler. The hard part is really over, NC State; @ VT; UVa; @ BC; @ Pitt; ND remain for the Kentucky team.

35. GT - I will admit this is much higher than I expected to find the Yellow Jackets given the weakness of their record, but here is where they stand. What is most amazing is that they are ahead of a Duke team that appears to have the makings of the Wake Forest, a la 2016. I cannot see this team sticking here. The offense is tremendous, but the pitching staff leaves just too much to be desired. They swept a completely underwhelming and disappointing Miami squad in Atlanta last week, but things pick up now: FSU; @ Pitt; @ UNX; Wake; @ UVa; Duke left to play, and none of that bodes well for them finishing at or above .500 in league play.

40. Duke - Can I say, I am shocked not shocked to see Duke here. This team is just fundamentally sound and is playing really well. But, they may have had it somewhat easy up until now and that may be the biggest reason for their ranking behind the likes of UNX and GT. To date, they are yet to play ACC competition with a plus .500 average in leauge, but that changes real soon. @ Wake; @ FSU; NC State; @ VT; UNX; @GT remaining, and the first three series will definitely tell the tale for Duke's eventual season. They are well on their way to returning to the NCAAs. Whether that is as a 2-seed or a 3-seed is what will be determined over the coming month. A host seed is still a stretch for these Devils until they can prove themselves.

75. Pitt - Wow?!?! What would be more of a surprise. To find this team the mid way point of the ACC according to RPI or that somewhat more deserving teams (the entire Atlantic) are this low after the largest gap of matter between league opponents. The only league series they have won so far is UVa, which appears to have definitely fallen on hard times. They have @ BC; GT; @ Miami; @ ND; UofL; Clemson left on the docket. That is a soft schedule to the very end, but so goes the benefits of playing in the Coastal.

78. Miami - This looks nothing like the Miami of old and they scare no one at the moment. They benefit for the weak Coastal and then do little to take advantage of it. If this team (either ranked or reason votes prior to the season) wakes up they will need to do so very soon. UNX; @ Clemson; Pitt; @ FSU await them over the next month ending very weakly with @ VT and BC. I do not hold out hopes of them finishing at or above .500 in league play, but someone has to on the lesser of the conference.

93. BC - So how does an ACC team that has not come close to cracking .500 overall or in league play (and will not) rank in the top 100? No, really, I was asking, cause I have no answer. They were swept by Clemson this past weekend and get a quick reprieve with three home series against Pitt; VT; FSU before having to travel to ND at the most pleasant time possible. They return then for a series against UofL before finishing the series in Miami. They are not going to finish above .500 in any manner, but they have spunk.

98. ND - If I was surprised by BC, then I am flabbergasted by the ranking of the French Catholics in Indiana. The Irish are reeling after a weekend sweep by Duke in Durham last weekend and unfortunately, they are in the Atlantic which means things will not get easier immediately. They have Clemson; @ NC State over the coming two weeks followed by a cellar dweller fest of VT; BC; Pitt all at home before finishing the year in Louisville.

103. VT - As the first team in the ACC above the 100 mark, VT seems to feel better about their position then the three teams immediately in front of them. They play tough, can hit and have enough decent pitching to claw themselves into the top 100 by season end. They space out the competition over the coming weeks to find time to recuperate. @ UVa; UofL; @ ND; Duke; Miami; @ UNX gives them the chance to put up some Ws in the left side of the column before season end.

127. Wake - When you lose what they lost, you expect a drop, but this seems more severe than they deserve. Wake still has a good team and they will have the chance to prove it. They started the ACC slate with a series win against FSU and UofL before dropping the series to ND and a sweep before UNX in douche town. They probably should be ranked about 50 spots higher and i wish they were. We will see how they finish. Duke; @ BC; Clemson; @ GT; @ NC State; UVa await the at the end of the season.

128. UVa - The only series win they can claim is BC at home, and they have been swept by Miami and dropped 2 at Pitt. VT and UNX are home series before going on the road to UofL followed by Clemson; GT; @ Wake to finish the season. I have no confidence in this Cavalier team and I am not sure they do either.

Hope you enjoy, delve into the numbers and get ready for PW's look at Louisville this weekend! Go Baseball, Go America!!!