FanPost

WBB: Here is Looking at GaTech

S.D. Basinger

Timeout Against UNC

Team Gets Coaching. Photo S.D. Basinger.

State has five more regular season games left three of which are at home. The first of that five is against Georgia Tech in Raleigh on Sunday at 2 p.m. Finishing with an overall record of 27-2 and a conference record of 16-2 would be quite an accomplishment and would leave State tied record wise with Louisville assuming Louisville does not lose another game. Of course in that scenario, Louisville gets the number one seed in the ACC tournament by virtue of Thursday night's win over State.

Georgia Tech comes into Sunday's game against State with an overall record of 16-9 and a conference record of 7-7. Tech started conference play winning five of the team's first six games; however, Tech followed that by losing five conference games in a row and six of their last eight. Tech's warren Nolan Live RPI is 89; their ELO is 89; their SOS is 98; and their Quadrant 1 record is 1-3. Tech's best win by far is their January 9th win at 20-4 Florida State whose Live RPI is 24-back when Tech was hot.

State comes into the game against GaTech with an overall record of 22-2 and a conference record of 11-2. State's Live RPI is 17; their ELO is 10; their SOS is 63 and their Quadrant 1 record is 6-1. State is 8-2 in their last ten games. State's best win remains that over 21-4 Maryland whose Live RPI is 3. That win was back on December 5th in the ACC/Big Ten challenge.

Of note, there is another ACC/Big Ten Challenge going on right now and State got a softball win over Ohio State in State's first game of four in that challenge. State got the 5-3 win courtesy of Logan Moris's walk off home run.

Taking a look at the starters in Tech's last game, a 64-61 loss at Virginia Tech, one sees that GaTech has size and experience. The starting line-up for GaTech at VaTech included six-four redshirt junior Anne Francoise Diouf, six-four junior Lorela Cubaj, five-seven sophomore Lotta-Maj Lahtinen, six-one senior Francesca Pan and five-nine Kierra Fletcher. Six-five first year player Nerea Hermosa got 22 minutes against VaTech. Just think how good GaTech might have been had six-five Elizabeth Dixon and six-one Elizabeth Balogun had remained at GaTech instead of transferring to Louisville.

Tech is led in scoring by Pan at 12.4 ppg. Second in scoring is Carson at 11.4 ppg. Cubaj leads Tech in rebounding with 8.1 rpg. Tech shoots 404 from the floor; 289 from the arc. Tech scores 62.7 ppg and holds opponents to 51.4 ppg. Tech averages just over 38 boards per game. Pan and Carson are Tech's volume arc shooters with 137 and 136 arc shots to date respectively. Carson is the better arc shooter of the two shooting 368 from the arc.

Here are the predictions: warrennolan likes State 63-62 while ELO likes State 68-46 with an 88% probability of a win and R1 likes State 63-52 with an 82% chance of a probability.

Due to the size of Tech's starting inside players and including six-five bench player Nerea Hermosa, this will be another challenge for Elissa Cunane. Further, Tech wins with defense, so that as a whole will be a challenge for the State team. Absent some malaise from Thursday's game against Louisville, I like State by 10+.